GSW
BKN
Golden State Warriors @ Brooklyn Nets
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
GSWGolden State Warriors
60% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 60% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Warriors can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.5 points to the Warriors in our ratings.
- The Warriors' shooting (55.0% eFG%, 12th in the NBA) meets a Nets defense that ranks 28th.
- Simulation: the Warriors win 6,040 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Warriors -1.8, Nets -9.8.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Warriors 19th (-0.7), Nets 28th (-9.9).
Disadvantages Why Warriors may not
- Upset odds: the Nets win 3,960 of 10,000 simulations (40%). A 60% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home court: the Nets play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Warriors lose by 14 or more.
- Body clock: the Warriors cross 3 time zones.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Nets 11th (0.21), Warriors 24th (0.20).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | GSW -3.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 232.4 |
| Win chance | GSW n/a · BKN n/a | GSW 60% · BKN 40% |
| Fair moneyline | GSW -152 · BKN +152 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Nets 115, Warriors 118.
- 80% of simulations land between Warriors by 20 and Nets by 14.
Side by side
| GSW | BKN | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 0-4 |
| -0.7 19 | Net rating | -9.9 28 |
| 112.2 16 | Offensive rating | 105.9 30 |
| 112.9 17 | Defensive rating | 115.9 26 |
| 55.0% 12 | Effective FG% | 52.0% 30 |
| 55.6% 24 | Opponent eFG% | 57.2% 28 |
| 15.5 27 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.8 29 |
| 26.3% 11 | Offensive rebound % | 23.8% 23 |
| 35.7% 16 | 3-point % | 34.2% 27 |
| 102.3 17 | Pace | 100.4 24 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-25 | 2025-26 | BKN 106 @ GSW 109 | GSW |
| 2025-12-29 | 2025-26 | GSW 120 @ BKN 107 | GSW |
| 2025-03-06 | 2024-25 | GSW 121 @ BKN 119 | GSW |
| 2024-11-25 | 2024-25 | BKN 128 @ GSW 120 | BKN |
| 2024-02-05 | 2023-24 | GSW 109 @ BKN 98 | GSW |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works