GSW
BOS
Golden State Warriors @ Boston Celtics
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
BOSBoston Celtics
68% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 68% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Celtics can win
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Celtics 4th (+7.5), Warriors 19th (-0.7).
- Simulation: the Celtics win 6,820 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Celtics +8.0, Warriors -1.8.
- The Celtics' shooting (55.1% eFG%, 10th in the NBA) meets a Warriors defense that ranks 24th.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.8 points to the Celtics in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Celtics may not
- Upset odds: the Warriors win 3,180 of 10,000 simulations (32%). A 68% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Warriors 5th (15.7), Celtics 27th (12.8).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Celtics lose by 11 or more.
- Weak spot: the Celtics rank 29th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.17).
- Weak spot: the Celtics rank 27th of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (12.8).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BOS -6 |
| Total points | n/a | 228.6 |
| Win chance | GSW n/a · BOS n/a | GSW 32% · BOS 68% |
| Fair moneyline | GSW +215 · BOS -215 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Celtics 118, Warriors 111.
- 80% of simulations land between Warriors by 11 and Celtics by 23.
Side by side
| GSW | BOS | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 3-1 |
| -0.7 19 | Net rating | +7.5 4 |
| 112.2 16 | Offensive rating | 116.6 2 |
| 112.9 17 | Defensive rating | 109.1 5 |
| 55.0% 12 | Effective FG% | 55.1% 10 |
| 55.6% 24 | Opponent eFG% | 52.2% 4 |
| 15.5 27 | Turnovers per 100 | 12.7 2 |
| 26.3% 11 | Offensive rebound % | 29.0% 6 |
| 35.7% 16 | 3-point % | 36.5% 8 |
| 102.3 17 | Pace | 98.1 30 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-18 | 2025-26 | GSW 99 @ BOS 120 | BOS |
| 2026-02-19 | 2025-26 | BOS 121 @ GSW 110 | BOS |
| 2025-01-20 | 2024-25 | BOS 125 @ GSW 85 | BOS |
| 2024-11-06 | 2024-25 | GSW 118 @ BOS 112 | GSW |
| 2024-03-03 | 2023-24 | GSW 88 @ BOS 140 | BOS |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works