GSW
CHA
Golden State Warriors @ Charlotte Hornets
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
CHACharlotte Hornets
55% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 55% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Hornets can win
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Hornets 8th (+3.7), Warriors 19th (-0.7).
- The Hornets' shooting (54.7% eFG%, 13th in the NBA) meets a Warriors defense that ranks 24th.
- Home court: the Hornets play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Simulation: the Hornets win 5,450 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The Hornets' offense (114.6 points per 100 possessions, 7th in the NBA) meets a Warriors defense that ranks 17th.
Disadvantages Why Hornets may not
- Upset odds: the Warriors win 4,550 of 10,000 simulations (45%). A 55% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Warriors 5th (15.7), Hornets 28th (12.7).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Hornets lose by 15 or more.
- History: the Warriors won 5 of the last 5 meetings (rosters change, so this says little).
- Weak spot: the Hornets rank 28th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (15.6).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CHA -1.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 224.5 |
| Win chance | GSW n/a · CHA n/a | GSW 46% · CHA 55% |
| Fair moneyline | GSW +120 · CHA -120 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Hornets 113, Warriors 112.
- 80% of simulations land between Warriors by 15 and Hornets by 18.
Side by side
| GSW | CHA | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 3-2 |
| -0.7 19 | Net rating | +3.7 8 |
| 112.2 16 | Offensive rating | 114.6 7 |
| 112.9 17 | Defensive rating | 110.9 10 |
| 55.0% 12 | Effective FG% | 54.7% 13 |
| 55.6% 24 | Opponent eFG% | 54.0% 10 |
| 15.5 27 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.6 28 |
| 26.3% 11 | Offensive rebound % | 30.5% 4 |
| 35.7% 16 | 3-point % | 37.2% 4 |
| 102.3 17 | Pace | 100.3 25 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-17 | 2025-26 | CHA 116 @ GSW 136 | GSW |
| 2025-12-31 | 2025-26 | GSW 132 @ CHA 125 | GSW |
| 2025-03-03 | 2024-25 | GSW 119 @ CHA 101 | GSW |
| 2025-02-25 | 2024-25 | CHA 92 @ GSW 128 | GSW |
| 2024-03-29 | 2023-24 | GSW 115 @ CHA 97 | GSW |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works