GSW
CHI
Golden State Warriors @ Chicago Bulls
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
GSWGolden State Warriors
61% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 61% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Warriors can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Warriors -1.8, Bulls -16.2.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.3 points to the Warriors in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Warriors win 6,060 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 2.0 points to the Warriors in our ratings.
- The Warriors' shooting (55.0% eFG%, 12th in the NBA) meets a Bulls defense that ranks 21st.
Disadvantages Why Warriors may not
- Upset odds: the Bulls win 3,940 of 10,000 simulations (39%). A 61% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home court: the Bulls play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- The Bulls' shooting (54.3% eFG%, 14th in the NBA) meets a Warriors defense that ranks 24th.
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Bulls 6th (75.1%), Warriors 23rd (72.9%).
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Bulls 17th (14.5), Warriors 27th (15.5).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | GSW -3.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 240 |
| Win chance | GSW n/a · CHI n/a | GSW 61% · CHI 39% |
| Fair moneyline | GSW -154 · CHI +154 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Bulls 118, Warriors 122.
- 80% of simulations land between Warriors by 20 and Bulls by 13.
Side by side
| GSW | CHI | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 1-4 |
| -0.7 19 | Net rating | -5.5 24 |
| 112.2 16 | Offensive rating | 110.1 25 |
| 112.9 17 | Defensive rating | 115.6 25 |
| 55.0% 12 | Effective FG% | 54.3% 14 |
| 55.6% 24 | Opponent eFG% | 55.3% 21 |
| 15.5 27 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.5 17 |
| 26.3% 11 | Offensive rebound % | 23.4% 26 |
| 35.7% 16 | 3-point % | 35.0% 22 |
| 102.3 17 | Pace | 105.5 3 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-10 | 2025-26 | CHI 130 @ GSW 124 | CHI |
| 2025-12-07 | 2025-26 | GSW 123 @ CHI 91 | GSW |
| 2025-02-08 | 2024-25 | GSW 132 @ CHI 111 | GSW |
| 2025-01-23 | 2024-25 | CHI 106 @ GSW 131 | GSW |
| 2024-03-07 | 2023-24 | CHI 125 @ GSW 122 | CHI |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works