GSW
CLE
Golden State Warriors @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
CLECleveland Cavaliers
61% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 61% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Cavaliers can win
- The Cavaliers' shooting (55.5% eFG%, 7th in the NBA) meets a Warriors defense that ranks 24th.
- Simulation: the Cavaliers win 6,080 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home court: the Cavaliers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Cavaliers 10th (+2.7), Warriors 19th (-0.7).
- The Cavaliers' offense (114.5 points per 100 possessions, 9th in the NBA) meets a Warriors defense that ranks 17th.
Disadvantages Why Cavaliers may not
- Upset odds: the Warriors win 3,920 of 10,000 simulations (39%). A 61% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Cavaliers lose by 13 or more.
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
- Late scratches: stars can be ruled out right up to tip-off, after our last update.
- Rest days: teams sometimes sit healthy players, which isn't always on the injury report early.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CLE -3.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 232.8 |
| Win chance | GSW n/a · CLE n/a | GSW 39% · CLE 61% |
| Fair moneyline | GSW +155 · CLE -155 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Cavaliers 119, Warriors 115.
- 80% of simulations land between Warriors by 13 and Cavaliers by 20.
Side by side
| GSW | CLE | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 3-2 |
| -0.7 19 | Net rating | +2.7 10 |
| 112.2 16 | Offensive rating | 114.5 9 |
| 112.9 17 | Defensive rating | 111.8 15 |
| 55.0% 12 | Effective FG% | 55.5% 7 |
| 55.6% 24 | Opponent eFG% | 54.2% 15 |
| 15.5 27 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.2 15 |
| 26.3% 11 | Offensive rebound % | 27.0% 8 |
| 35.7% 16 | 3-point % | 35.4% 19 |
| 102.3 17 | Pace | 102.6 14 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-02 | 2025-26 | CLE 118 @ GSW 111 | CLE |
| 2025-12-06 | 2025-26 | GSW 99 @ CLE 94 | GSW |
| 2024-12-30 | 2024-25 | CLE 113 @ GSW 95 | CLE |
| 2024-11-08 | 2024-25 | GSW 117 @ CLE 136 | CLE |
| 2023-11-11 | 2023-24 | CLE 118 @ GSW 110 | CLE |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works