GSW
DAL
Golden State Warriors @ Dallas Mavericks
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
DALDallas Mavericks
57% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Mavericks can win
- Simulation: the Mavericks win 5,740 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home court: the Mavericks play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Mavericks 13th (14.0), Warriors 27th (15.5).
- Body clock: the Warriors cross 2 time zones.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Mavericks 13th (0.21), Warriors 24th (0.20).
Disadvantages Why Mavericks may not
- Upset odds: the Warriors win 4,260 of 10,000 simulations (43%). A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Warriors 5th (15.7), Mavericks 26th (12.8).
- The Warriors' shooting (55.0% eFG%, 12th in the NBA) meets a Mavericks defense that ranks 17th.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Warriors 11th (26.3%), Mavericks 25th (23.4%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Mavericks lose by 15 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DAL -2.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 232.8 |
| Win chance | GSW n/a · DAL n/a | GSW 43% · DAL 57% |
| Fair moneyline | GSW +135 · DAL -135 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Mavericks 118, Warriors 116.
- 80% of simulations land between Warriors by 15 and Mavericks by 19.
Side by side
| GSW | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 3-2 |
| -0.7 19 | Net rating | -4.8 23 |
| 112.2 16 | Offensive rating | 108.7 26 |
| 112.9 17 | Defensive rating | 113.5 20 |
| 55.0% 12 | Effective FG% | 52.9% 25 |
| 55.6% 24 | Opponent eFG% | 54.5% 17 |
| 15.5 27 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.0 13 |
| 26.3% 11 | Offensive rebound % | 23.4% 25 |
| 35.7% 16 | 3-point % | 34.4% 26 |
| 102.3 17 | Pace | 105.0 4 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-23 | 2025-26 | GSW 137 @ DAL 131 | GSW |
| 2026-01-22 | 2025-26 | GSW 115 @ DAL 123 | DAL |
| 2025-12-25 | 2025-26 | DAL 116 @ GSW 126 | GSW |
| 2025-02-23 | 2024-25 | DAL 102 @ GSW 126 | GSW |
| 2025-02-12 | 2024-25 | GSW 107 @ DAL 111 | DAL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works