GSW

Golden State Warriors @ Denver Nuggets

Any-day matchup · ratings as of Oct 30, 7:50 PM ET

DEN

Our pick

DENDenver Nuggets

59% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 59% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.

AZMango model

GSW 41%DEN 59%

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why Nuggets can win

The Nuggets' shooting (56.9% eFG%, 2nd in the NBA) meets a Warriors defense that ranks 24th.
Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Nuggets 7th (+4.1), Warriors 19th (-0.7).
The Nuggets' offense (118.2 points per 100 possessions, 1st in the NBA) meets a Warriors defense that ranks 17th.
Simulation: the Nuggets win 5,880 of 10,000 simulated games.
Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Nuggets 3rd (12.7), Warriors 27th (15.5).

Disadvantages Why Nuggets may not

Upset odds: the Warriors win 4,120 of 10,000 simulations (41%). A 59% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Warriors 5th (15.7), Nuggets 30th (11.9).
Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Warriors 11th (26.3%), Nuggets 28th (23.3%).
Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Nuggets lose by 14 or more.
The Warriors' offense (112.2 points per 100 possessions, 16th in the NBA) meets a Nuggets defense that ranks 21st.

The line and our numbers

	Market	AZMango
Spread	No line yet	DEN -2.9
Total points	n/a	232
Win chance	GSW n/a · DEN n/a	GSW 41% · DEN 59%
Fair moneyline		GSW +142 · DEN -142

No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

10,000 simulated games, possession by possession

Typical score: Nuggets 118, Warriors 115.
80% of simulations land between Warriors by 14 and Nuggets by 19.

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Side by side

GSW		DEN
2-3	Record	2-2
-0.7 19	Net rating	+4.1 7
112.2 16	Offensive rating	118.2 1
112.9 17	Defensive rating	114.1 21
55.0% 12	Effective FG%	56.9% 2
55.6% 24	Opponent eFG%	54.1% 13
15.5 27	Turnovers per 100	12.7 3
26.3% 11	Offensive rebound %	23.3% 28
35.7% 16	3-point %	38.8% 1
102.3 17	Pace	102.1 20

Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).

Last 5 meetings

Date	Season	Score	Winner
2026-10-26	2026-27	GSW 134 @ DEN 114	GSW
2026-03-29	2025-26	GSW 93 @ DEN 116	DEN
2026-02-22	2025-26	DEN 117 @ GSW 128	GSW
2025-11-07	2025-26	GSW 104 @ DEN 129	DEN
2025-10-23	2025-26	DEN 131 @ GSW 137	GSW

No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.

Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works

Player matchups

GSW

Stephen Curry G

26.7 pts, 3.6 reb, 4.6 ast in 30.9 min, 47% FG

vs a defense ranked 21 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.1%)

GSW

Jimmy Butler III F

20 pts, 5.6 reb, 4.9 ast in 31.2 min, 52% FG

vs a defense ranked 21 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.1%)

GSW

Yaxel Lendeborg F

22.6 pts, 9.2 reb, 4 ast in 33.6 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 21 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.1%)

DEN

Nikola Jokic C

27.2 pts, 12.8 reb, 10.5 ast in 35.3 min, 55% FG

vs a defense ranked 17 of 30 (opponent eFG% 55.6%)

DEN

Jamal Murray G

25.1 pts, 4.5 reb, 7 ast in 35.8 min, 47% FG

vs a defense ranked 17 of 30 (opponent eFG% 55.6%)

DEN

Aaron Gordon F

15.5 pts, 5.8 reb, 2.6 ast in 28.2 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 17 of 30 (opponent eFG% 55.6%)

Per-game averages, 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons. Ordered by Game Score.

Last time they met

The Warriors beat the Nuggets 134-114 on the road (2026-10-26). The difference: they made 22 threes to 10, a 36-point swing and they shot 67% effective field goal percentage to 56%. Yaxel Lendeborg led the Warriors with 31 points.