GSW
DET
Golden State Warriors @ Detroit Pistons
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
DETDetroit Pistons
70% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 70% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Pistons can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.5 points to the Pistons in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Pistons win 7,040 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Pistons 5th (+7.0), Warriors 19th (-0.7).
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Pistons +6.4, Warriors -1.8.
- Home court: the Pistons play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Disadvantages Why Pistons may not
- Upset odds: the Warriors win 2,960 of 10,000 simulations (30%). A 70% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Pistons lose by 10 or more.
- Weak spot: the Pistons rank 24th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (15.0).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
- Late scratches: stars can be ruled out right up to tip-off, after our last update.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DET -7.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 225.4 |
| Win chance | GSW n/a · DET n/a | GSW 30% · DET 70% |
| Fair moneyline | GSW +238 · DET -238 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Pistons 117, Warriors 109.
- 80% of simulations land between Warriors by 10 and Pistons by 24.
Side by side
| GSW | DET | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 4-1 |
| -0.7 19 | Net rating | +7.0 5 |
| 112.2 16 | Offensive rating | 113.2 12 |
| 112.9 17 | Defensive rating | 106.2 2 |
| 55.0% 12 | Effective FG% | 54.2% 16 |
| 55.6% 24 | Opponent eFG% | 51.4% 1 |
| 15.5 27 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.0 24 |
| 26.3% 11 | Offensive rebound % | 30.8% 3 |
| 35.7% 16 | 3-point % | 35.8% 15 |
| 102.3 17 | Pace | 102.1 19 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-20 | 2025-26 | GSW 101 @ DET 115 | DET |
| 2026-01-30 | 2025-26 | DET 131 @ GSW 124 | DET |
| 2025-03-08 | 2024-25 | DET 110 @ GSW 115 | GSW |
| 2025-01-09 | 2024-25 | GSW 107 @ DET 104 | GSW |
| 2024-01-05 | 2023-24 | DET 109 @ GSW 113 | GSW |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works