GSW
HOU
Golden State Warriors @ Houston Rockets
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
HOUHouston Rockets
75% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 75% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why Rockets can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Rockets +14.2, Warriors -1.8.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.4 points to the Rockets in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Rockets win 7,510 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Rockets 6th (+5.2), Warriors 19th (-0.7).
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 2.6 points to the Rockets in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Rockets may not
- Upset odds: the Warriors win 2,490 of 10,000 simulations (25%). A 75% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Warriors 5th (15.7), Rockets 19th (13.8).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Rockets lose by 8 or more.
- Weak spot: the Rockets rank 26th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (15.4).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | HOU -8.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 228.8 |
| Win chance | GSW n/a · HOU n/a | GSW 25% · HOU 75% |
| Fair moneyline | GSW +301 · HOU -301 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Rockets 119, Warriors 110.
- 80% of simulations land between Warriors by 8 and Rockets by 25.
Side by side
| GSW | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 5-0 |
| -0.7 19 | Net rating | +5.2 6 |
| 112.2 16 | Offensive rating | 114.6 8 |
| 112.9 17 | Defensive rating | 109.4 6 |
| 55.0% 12 | Effective FG% | 54.0% 18 |
| 55.6% 24 | Opponent eFG% | 53.0% 6 |
| 15.5 27 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.4 26 |
| 26.3% 11 | Offensive rebound % | 34.3% 1 |
| 35.7% 16 | 3-point % | 36.2% 11 |
| 102.3 17 | Pace | 100.0 27 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | 2025-26 | HOU 117 @ GSW 116 | HOU |
| 2026-03-05 | 2025-26 | GSW 115 @ HOU 113 | GSW |
| 2025-11-26 | 2025-26 | HOU 104 @ GSW 100 | HOU |
| 2025-05-04 | Playoffs | GSW 103 @ HOU 89 | GSW |
| 2025-05-02 | Playoffs | HOU 115 @ GSW 107 | HOU |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works