GSW
IND
Golden State Warriors @ Indiana Pacers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
GSWGolden State Warriors
52% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Warriors can win
- The Warriors' shooting (55.0% eFG%, 12th in the NBA) meets a Pacers defense that ranks 22nd.
- Simulation: the Warriors win 5,190 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Warriors 19th (-0.7), Pacers 26th (-7.2).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.6 points to the Warriors in our ratings.
- The Warriors' offense (112.2 points per 100 possessions, 16th in the NBA) meets a Pacers defense that ranks 24th.
Disadvantages Why Warriors may not
- Upset odds: the Pacers win 4,810 of 10,000 simulations (48%). A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Home court: the Pacers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Pacers 12th (14.0), Warriors 27th (15.5).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Warriors lose by 16 or more.
- Body clock: the Warriors cross 3 time zones.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | GSW -0.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 233.1 |
| Win chance | GSW n/a · IND n/a | GSW 52% · IND 48% |
| Fair moneyline | GSW -108 · IND +108 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Pacers 117, Warriors 117.
- 80% of simulations land between Warriors by 18 and Pacers by 16.
Side by side
| GSW | IND | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 2-3 |
| -0.7 19 | Net rating | -7.2 26 |
| 112.2 16 | Offensive rating | 108.4 27 |
| 112.9 17 | Defensive rating | 115.6 24 |
| 55.0% 12 | Effective FG% | 53.3% 22 |
| 55.6% 24 | Opponent eFG% | 55.4% 22 |
| 15.5 27 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.0 12 |
| 26.3% 11 | Offensive rebound % | 21.8% 29 |
| 35.7% 16 | 3-point % | 35.3% 20 |
| 102.3 17 | Pace | 103.9 9 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-09 | 2025-26 | IND 83 @ GSW 114 | GSW |
| 2025-11-01 | 2025-26 | GSW 109 @ IND 114 | IND |
| 2025-01-10 | 2024-25 | GSW 96 @ IND 108 | IND |
| 2024-12-23 | 2024-25 | IND 111 @ GSW 105 | IND |
| 2024-03-22 | 2023-24 | IND 123 @ GSW 111 | IND |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works