GSW
LAC
Golden State Warriors @ LA Clippers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
LACLA Clippers
58% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 58% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Clippers can win
- The Clippers' shooting (55.9% eFG%, 4th in the NBA) meets a Warriors defense that ranks 24th.
- Simulation: the Clippers win 5,830 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home court: the Clippers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- The Clippers' offense (114.0 points per 100 possessions, 10th in the NBA) meets a Warriors defense that ranks 17th.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Clippers 3rd (0.24), Warriors 24th (0.20).
Disadvantages Why Clippers may not
- Upset odds: the Warriors win 4,170 of 10,000 simulations (42%). A 58% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- The Warriors' shooting (55.0% eFG%, 12th in the NBA) meets a Clippers defense that ranks 18th.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Warriors 11th (26.3%), Clippers 24th (23.8%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Clippers lose by 14 or more.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Warriors 5th (15.7), Clippers 14th (14.5).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LAC -2.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 227.5 |
| Win chance | GSW n/a · LAC n/a | GSW 42% · LAC 58% |
| Fair moneyline | GSW +140 · LAC -140 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Clippers 115, Warriors 113.
- 80% of simulations land between Warriors by 14 and Clippers by 19.
Side by side
| GSW | LAC | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 1-3 |
| -0.7 19 | Net rating | +0.9 15 |
| 112.2 16 | Offensive rating | 114.0 10 |
| 112.9 17 | Defensive rating | 113.0 18 |
| 55.0% 12 | Effective FG% | 55.9% 4 |
| 55.6% 24 | Opponent eFG% | 54.6% 18 |
| 15.5 27 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.7 20 |
| 26.3% 11 | Offensive rebound % | 23.8% 24 |
| 35.7% 16 | 3-point % | 36.9% 5 |
| 102.3 17 | Pace | 99.6 29 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-15 | 2025-26 | GSW 126 @ LAC 121 | GSW |
| 2026-04-12 | 2025-26 | GSW 110 @ LAC 115 | LAC |
| 2026-03-02 | 2025-26 | LAC 114 @ GSW 101 | LAC |
| 2026-01-05 | 2025-26 | GSW 102 @ LAC 103 | LAC |
| 2025-10-28 | 2025-26 | LAC 79 @ GSW 98 | GSW |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works