GSW
MEM
Golden State Warriors @ Memphis Grizzlies
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
MEMMemphis Grizzlies
60% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 60% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Grizzlies can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Grizzlies +12.0, Warriors -1.8.
- Simulation: the Grizzlies win 5,990 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home court: the Grizzlies play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.3 points to the Grizzlies in our ratings.
- Body clock: the Warriors cross 2 time zones.
Disadvantages Why Grizzlies may not
- The Warriors' shooting (55.0% eFG%, 12th in the NBA) meets a Grizzlies defense that ranks 26th.
- Upset odds: the Warriors win 4,010 of 10,000 simulations (40%). A 60% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- The Warriors' offense (112.2 points per 100 possessions, 16th in the NBA) meets a Grizzlies defense that ranks 22nd.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Grizzlies lose by 14 or more.
- Weak spot: the Grizzlies rank 29th of 30 in defensive rebounding (share of misses) (71.0%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MEM -3.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 231.6 |
| Win chance | GSW n/a · MEM n/a | GSW 40% · MEM 60% |
| Fair moneyline | GSW +150 · MEM -150 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Grizzlies 118, Warriors 114.
- 80% of simulations land between Warriors by 14 and Grizzlies by 20.
Side by side
| GSW | MEM | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 5-0 |
| -0.7 19 | Net rating | -4.8 22 |
| 112.2 16 | Offensive rating | 110.2 23 |
| 112.9 17 | Defensive rating | 114.9 22 |
| 55.0% 12 | Effective FG% | 53.3% 23 |
| 55.6% 24 | Opponent eFG% | 55.8% 26 |
| 15.5 27 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.5 18 |
| 26.3% 11 | Offensive rebound % | 25.2% 17 |
| 35.7% 16 | 3-point % | 35.5% 17 |
| 102.3 17 | Pace | 104.3 7 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | 2026-27 | MEM 111 @ GSW 108 | MEM |
| 2026-02-25 | 2025-26 | GSW 133 @ MEM 112 | GSW |
| 2026-02-09 | 2025-26 | MEM 113 @ GSW 114 | GSW |
| 2025-10-27 | 2025-26 | MEM 118 @ GSW 131 | GSW |
| 2025-04-15 | 2024-25 | MEM 116 @ GSW 121 | GSW |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works