GSW
MIA
Golden State Warriors @ Miami Heat
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
MIAMiami Heat
51% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 51% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Heat can win
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Heat 4th (12.8), Warriors 27th (15.5).
- Home court: the Heat play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Heat 12th (+1.6), Warriors 19th (-0.7).
- Simulation: the Heat win 5,080 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The Heat' shooting (54.1% eFG%, 17th in the NBA) meets a Warriors defense that ranks 24th.
Disadvantages Why Heat may not
- Upset odds: the Warriors win 4,920 of 10,000 simulations (49%). A 51% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Warriors -1.8, Heat -7.8.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 0.9 points to the Warriors in our ratings.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Heat lose by 16 or more.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Warriors 5th (15.7), Heat 17th (14.2).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIA -0.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 237.1 |
| Win chance | GSW n/a · MIA n/a | GSW 49% · MIA 51% |
| Fair moneyline | GSW +103 · MIA -103 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Heat 119, Warriors 119.
- 80% of simulations land between Warriors by 16 and Heat by 17.
Side by side
| GSW | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 1-4 |
| -0.7 19 | Net rating | +1.6 12 |
| 112.2 16 | Offensive rating | 113.4 11 |
| 112.9 17 | Defensive rating | 111.8 14 |
| 55.0% 12 | Effective FG% | 54.1% 17 |
| 55.6% 24 | Opponent eFG% | 54.2% 14 |
| 15.5 27 | Turnovers per 100 | 12.8 4 |
| 26.3% 11 | Offensive rebound % | 25.2% 16 |
| 35.7% 16 | 3-point % | 35.9% 12 |
| 102.3 17 | Pace | 106.3 1 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-19 | 2025-26 | MIA 112 @ GSW 135 | GSW |
| 2025-11-19 | 2025-26 | GSW 96 @ MIA 110 | MIA |
| 2025-03-25 | 2024-25 | GSW 86 @ MIA 112 | MIA |
| 2025-01-07 | 2024-25 | MIA 114 @ GSW 98 | MIA |
| 2024-03-26 | 2023-24 | GSW 113 @ MIA 92 | GSW |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works