GSW
MIL
Golden State Warriors @ Milwaukee Bucks
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
GSWGolden State Warriors
61% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 61% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Warriors can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.6 points to the Warriors in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Warriors -1.8, Bucks -10.8.
- The Warriors' shooting (55.0% eFG%, 12th in the NBA) meets a Bucks defense that ranks 25th.
- Simulation: the Warriors win 6,100 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 1.9 points to the Warriors in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Warriors may not
- The Bucks' shooting (56.3% eFG%, 3rd in the NBA) meets a Warriors defense that ranks 24th.
- Upset odds: the Bucks win 3,900 of 10,000 simulations (39%). A 61% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home court: the Bucks play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Three-point shooting: Bucks 2nd (38.4%), Warriors 16th (35.7%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Warriors lose by 13 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | GSW -3.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 232.5 |
| Win chance | GSW n/a · MIL n/a | GSW 61% · MIL 39% |
| Fair moneyline | GSW -156 · MIL +156 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Bucks 115, Warriors 118.
- 80% of simulations land between Warriors by 20 and Bucks by 13.
Side by side
| GSW | MIL | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 1-4 |
| -0.7 19 | Net rating | -6.4 25 |
| 112.2 16 | Offensive rating | 110.1 24 |
| 112.9 17 | Defensive rating | 116.5 27 |
| 55.0% 12 | Effective FG% | 56.3% 3 |
| 55.6% 24 | Opponent eFG% | 55.7% 25 |
| 15.5 27 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.2 25 |
| 26.3% 11 | Offensive rebound % | 21.7% 30 |
| 35.7% 16 | 3-point % | 38.4% 2 |
| 102.3 17 | Pace | 100.6 22 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-07 | 2025-26 | MIL 113 @ GSW 120 | GSW |
| 2025-10-30 | 2025-26 | GSW 110 @ MIL 120 | MIL |
| 2025-03-18 | 2024-25 | MIL 93 @ GSW 104 | GSW |
| 2025-02-10 | 2024-25 | GSW 125 @ MIL 111 | GSW |
| 2024-03-06 | 2023-24 | MIL 90 @ GSW 125 | GSW |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works