GSW
MIN
Golden State Warriors @ Minnesota Timberwolves
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
MINMinnesota Timberwolves
69% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 69% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Timberwolves can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Timberwolves +12.6, Warriors -1.8.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.4 points to the Timberwolves in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Timberwolves win 6,900 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The Timberwolves' shooting (55.1% eFG%, 9th in the NBA) meets a Warriors defense that ranks 24th.
- Home court: the Timberwolves play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Disadvantages Why Timberwolves may not
- Upset odds: the Warriors win 3,100 of 10,000 simulations (31%). A 69% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Timberwolves lose by 10 or more.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Warriors 5th (15.7), Timberwolves 16th (14.3).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
- Late scratches: stars can be ruled out right up to tip-off, after our last update.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIN -6.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 232.1 |
| Win chance | GSW n/a · MIN n/a | GSW 31% · MIN 69% |
| Fair moneyline | GSW +223 · MIN -223 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Timberwolves 120, Warriors 113.
- 80% of simulations land between Warriors by 10 and Timberwolves by 24.
Side by side
| GSW | MIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 3-2 |
| -0.7 19 | Net rating | +2.6 11 |
| 112.2 16 | Offensive rating | 112.7 13 |
| 112.9 17 | Defensive rating | 110.1 8 |
| 55.0% 12 | Effective FG% | 55.1% 9 |
| 55.6% 24 | Opponent eFG% | 52.8% 5 |
| 15.5 27 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.3 16 |
| 26.3% 11 | Offensive rebound % | 26.0% 13 |
| 35.7% 16 | 3-point % | 36.7% 6 |
| 102.3 17 | Pace | 103.8 10 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-28 | 2026-27 | GSW 119 @ MIN 114 | GSW |
| 2026-03-13 | 2025-26 | MIN 127 @ GSW 117 | MIN |
| 2026-01-26 | 2025-26 | GSW 83 @ MIN 108 | MIN |
| 2026-01-25 | 2025-26 | GSW 111 @ MIN 85 | GSW |
| 2025-12-12 | 2025-26 | MIN 127 @ GSW 120 | MIN |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works