GSW
NOP
Golden State Warriors @ New Orleans Pelicans
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
GSWGolden State Warriors
51% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 51% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Warriors can win
- The Warriors' shooting (55.0% eFG%, 12th in the NBA) meets a Pelicans defense that ranks 23rd.
- Simulation: the Warriors win 5,110 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.3 points to the Warriors in our ratings.
- The Warriors' offense (112.2 points per 100 possessions, 16th in the NBA) meets a Pelicans defense that ranks 23rd.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Warriors 5th (15.7), Pelicans 18th (14.1).
Disadvantages Why Warriors may not
- Upset odds: the Pelicans win 4,890 of 10,000 simulations (49%). A 51% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Home court: the Pelicans play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Pelicans 10th (13.8), Warriors 27th (15.5).
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Pelicans 5th (0.22), Warriors 24th (0.20).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Warriors lose by 16 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | GSW -0.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 236.6 |
| Win chance | GSW n/a · NOP n/a | GSW 51% · NOP 49% |
| Fair moneyline | GSW -105 · NOP +105 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Pelicans 119, Warriors 119.
- 80% of simulations land between Warriors by 17 and Pelicans by 16.
Side by side
| GSW | NOP | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 1-4 |
| -0.7 19 | Net rating | -4.2 21 |
| 112.2 16 | Offensive rating | 111.2 18 |
| 112.9 17 | Defensive rating | 115.4 23 |
| 55.0% 12 | Effective FG% | 52.8% 26 |
| 55.6% 24 | Opponent eFG% | 55.5% 23 |
| 15.5 27 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.8 10 |
| 26.3% 11 | Offensive rebound % | 26.7% 9 |
| 35.7% 16 | 3-point % | 34.4% 25 |
| 102.3 17 | Pace | 104.1 8 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-24 | 2025-26 | GSW 109 @ NOP 113 | NOP |
| 2025-11-29 | 2025-26 | NOP 96 @ GSW 104 | GSW |
| 2025-11-16 | 2025-26 | GSW 124 @ NOP 106 | GSW |
| 2025-03-28 | 2024-25 | GSW 111 @ NOP 95 | GSW |
| 2024-11-22 | 2024-25 | GSW 112 @ NOP 108 | GSW |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works