GSW
NYK
Golden State Warriors @ New York Knicks
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
NYKNew York Knicks
68% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 68% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Knicks can win
- The Knicks' shooting (55.6% eFG%, 5th in the NBA) meets a Warriors defense that ranks 24th.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Knicks 3rd (+7.6), Warriors 19th (-0.7).
- Simulation: the Knicks win 6,850 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.9 points to the Knicks in our ratings.
- The Knicks' offense (116.4 points per 100 possessions, 3rd in the NBA) meets a Warriors defense that ranks 17th.
Disadvantages Why Knicks may not
- Upset odds: the Warriors win 3,150 of 10,000 simulations (31%). A 68% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Knicks lose by 10 or more.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Warriors 5th (15.7), Knicks 15th (14.3).
- Weak spot: the Knicks rank 25th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.19).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NYK -6.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 226 |
| Win chance | GSW n/a · NYK n/a | GSW 32% · NYK 68% |
| Fair moneyline | GSW +217 · NYK -217 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Knicks 116, Warriors 110.
- 80% of simulations land between Warriors by 10 and Knicks by 23.
Side by side
| GSW | NYK | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 2-3 |
| -0.7 19 | Net rating | +7.6 3 |
| 112.2 16 | Offensive rating | 116.4 3 |
| 112.9 17 | Defensive rating | 108.7 4 |
| 55.0% 12 | Effective FG% | 55.6% 5 |
| 55.6% 24 | Opponent eFG% | 53.3% 7 |
| 15.5 27 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.7 9 |
| 26.3% 11 | Offensive rebound % | 29.3% 5 |
| 35.7% 16 | 3-point % | 37.5% 3 |
| 102.3 17 | Pace | 99.8 28 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | 2025-26 | GSW 107 @ NYK 110 | NYK |
| 2026-01-15 | 2025-26 | NYK 113 @ GSW 126 | GSW |
| 2025-03-15 | 2024-25 | NYK 94 @ GSW 97 | GSW |
| 2025-03-04 | 2024-25 | GSW 114 @ NYK 102 | GSW |
| 2024-03-18 | 2023-24 | NYK 119 @ GSW 112 | NYK |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works