GSW
OKC
Golden State Warriors @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
OKCOklahoma City Thunder
70% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 70% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Thunder can win
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Thunder 1st (+10.0), Warriors 19th (-0.7).
- The Thunder' shooting (55.6% eFG%, 6th in the NBA) meets a Warriors defense that ranks 24th.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.5 points to the Thunder in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Thunder win 7,030 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Thunder 1st (12.5), Warriors 27th (15.5).
Disadvantages Why Thunder may not
- Upset odds: the Warriors win 2,970 of 10,000 simulations (30%). A 70% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Warriors 11th (26.3%), Thunder 27th (23.4%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Thunder lose by 10 or more.
- Weak spot: the Thunder rank 27th of 30 in offensive rebounding (share of misses) (23.4%).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | OKC -7 |
| Total points | n/a | 227 |
| Win chance | GSW n/a · OKC n/a | GSW 30% · OKC 70% |
| Fair moneyline | GSW +237 · OKC -237 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Thunder 117, Warriors 110.
- 80% of simulations land between Warriors by 10 and Thunder by 24.
Side by side
| GSW | OKC | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 4-1 |
| -0.7 19 | Net rating | +10.0 1 |
| 112.2 16 | Offensive rating | 115.4 4 |
| 112.9 17 | Defensive rating | 105.5 1 |
| 55.0% 12 | Effective FG% | 55.6% 6 |
| 55.6% 24 | Opponent eFG% | 51.8% 3 |
| 15.5 27 | Turnovers per 100 | 12.5 1 |
| 26.3% 11 | Offensive rebound % | 23.4% 27 |
| 35.7% 16 | 3-point % | 36.2% 10 |
| 102.3 17 | Pace | 102.2 18 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-07 | 2025-26 | GSW 97 @ OKC 104 | OKC |
| 2026-01-02 | 2025-26 | OKC 131 @ GSW 94 | OKC |
| 2025-12-02 | 2025-26 | OKC 124 @ GSW 112 | OKC |
| 2025-11-11 | 2025-26 | GSW 102 @ OKC 126 | OKC |
| 2025-01-29 | 2024-25 | OKC 109 @ GSW 116 | GSW |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works