GSW
ORL
Golden State Warriors @ Orlando Magic
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
ORLOrlando Magic
50% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 50% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Magic can win
- Home court: the Magic play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Simulation: the Magic win 5,050 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Magic 11th (13.9), Warriors 27th (15.5).
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Magic 1st (0.25), Warriors 24th (0.20).
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Magic 5th (75.2%), Warriors 23rd (72.9%).
Disadvantages Why Magic may not
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Warriors -1.8, Magic -12.5.
- Upset odds: the Warriors win 4,950 of 10,000 simulations (50%). A 50% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.3 points to the Warriors in our ratings.
- Three-point shooting: Warriors 16th (35.7%), Magic 29th (34.0%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Magic lose by 17 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | Pick'em |
| Total points | n/a | 231.1 |
| Win chance | GSW n/a · ORL n/a | GSW 50% · ORL 50% |
| Fair moneyline | GSW +102 · ORL -102 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Magic 116, Warriors 116.
- 80% of simulations land between Warriors by 17 and Magic by 17.
Side by side
| GSW | ORL | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 1-3 |
| -0.7 19 | Net rating | -0.2 17 |
| 112.2 16 | Offensive rating | 110.4 22 |
| 112.9 17 | Defensive rating | 110.6 9 |
| 55.0% 12 | Effective FG% | 52.4% 28 |
| 55.6% 24 | Opponent eFG% | 53.9% 9 |
| 15.5 27 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.9 11 |
| 26.3% 11 | Offensive rebound % | 24.8% 19 |
| 35.7% 16 | 3-point % | 34.0% 29 |
| 102.3 17 | Pace | 103.1 12 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-22 | 2025-26 | ORL 97 @ GSW 120 | GSW |
| 2025-11-18 | 2025-26 | GSW 113 @ ORL 121 | ORL |
| 2025-02-27 | 2024-25 | GSW 121 @ ORL 115 | GSW |
| 2025-02-03 | 2024-25 | ORL 99 @ GSW 104 | GSW |
| 2024-03-27 | 2023-24 | GSW 101 @ ORL 93 | GSW |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works