GSW
PHI
Golden State Warriors @ Philadelphia 76ers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers
59% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 59% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why 76ers can win
- Simulation: the 76ers win 5,880 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home court: the 76ers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): 76ers 5th (13.1), Warriors 27th (15.5).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 0.9 points to the 76ers in our ratings.
- Body clock: the Warriors cross 3 time zones.
Disadvantages Why 76ers may not
- Upset odds: the Warriors win 4,120 of 10,000 simulations (41%). A 59% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the 76ers lose by 14 or more.
- Weak spot: the 76ers rank 27th of 30 in effective shooting (eFG%) (52.7%).
- Weak spot: the 76ers rank 26th of 30 in defensive rebounding (share of misses) (72.3%).
- Three-point shooting: Warriors 16th (35.7%), 76ers 23rd (34.7%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | PHI -2.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 229.8 |
| Win chance | GSW n/a · PHI n/a | GSW 41% · PHI 59% |
| Fair moneyline | GSW +143 · PHI -143 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: 76ers 117, Warriors 114.
- 80% of simulations land between Warriors by 14 and 76ers by 19.
Side by side
| GSW | PHI | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 4-1 |
| -0.7 19 | Net rating | -0.9 20 |
| 112.2 16 | Offensive rating | 111.2 19 |
| 112.9 17 | Defensive rating | 112.1 16 |
| 55.0% 12 | Effective FG% | 52.7% 27 |
| 55.6% 24 | Opponent eFG% | 54.0% 11 |
| 15.5 27 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.1 5 |
| 26.3% 11 | Offensive rebound % | 25.1% 18 |
| 35.7% 16 | 3-point % | 34.7% 23 |
| 102.3 17 | Pace | 102.7 13 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-03 | 2025-26 | PHI 113 @ GSW 94 | PHI |
| 2025-12-04 | 2025-26 | GSW 98 @ PHI 99 | PHI |
| 2025-03-01 | 2024-25 | GSW 119 @ PHI 126 | PHI |
| 2025-01-02 | 2024-25 | PHI 105 @ GSW 139 | GSW |
| 2024-02-07 | 2023-24 | GSW 127 @ PHI 104 | GSW |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works