GSW
PHX
Golden State Warriors @ Phoenix Suns
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
PHXPhoenix Suns
52% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Suns can win
- Home court: the Suns play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Simulation: the Suns win 5,230 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The Suns' shooting (53.7% eFG%, 19th in the NBA) meets a Warriors defense that ranks 24th.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Suns 19th (14.5), Warriors 27th (15.5).
- Strength: the Suns rank 4th of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (16.0).
Disadvantages Why Suns may not
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Warriors -1.8, Suns -14.3.
- Upset odds: the Warriors win 4,770 of 10,000 simulations (48%). A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Suns lose by 16 or more.
- Weak spot: the Suns rank 28th of 30 in defensive rebounding (share of misses) (71.4%).
- Weak spot: the Suns rank 28th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.18).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | PHX -0.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 229.7 |
| Win chance | GSW n/a · PHX n/a | GSW 48% · PHX 52% |
| Fair moneyline | GSW +109 · PHX -109 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Suns 116, Warriors 115.
- 80% of simulations land between Warriors by 16 and Suns by 17.
Side by side
| GSW | PHX | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 1-2 |
| -0.7 19 | Net rating | +0.2 16 |
| 112.2 16 | Offensive rating | 111.8 17 |
| 112.9 17 | Defensive rating | 111.6 13 |
| 55.0% 12 | Effective FG% | 53.7% 19 |
| 55.6% 24 | Opponent eFG% | 54.3% 16 |
| 15.5 27 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.5 19 |
| 26.3% 11 | Offensive rebound % | 28.7% 7 |
| 35.7% 16 | 3-point % | 35.9% 13 |
| 102.3 17 | Pace | 100.3 26 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | 2026-27 | GSW 122 @ PHX 131 | PHX |
| 2026-04-17 | 2025-26 | GSW 96 @ PHX 111 | PHX |
| 2026-02-05 | 2025-26 | GSW 101 @ PHX 97 | GSW |
| 2025-12-20 | 2025-26 | PHX 116 @ GSW 119 | GSW |
| 2025-12-18 | 2025-26 | GSW 98 @ PHX 99 | PHX |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works