GSW
POR
Golden State Warriors @ Portland Trail Blazers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
PORPortland Trail Blazers
60% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 60% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Trail Blazers can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Trail Blazers +8.8, Warriors -1.8.
- Simulation: the Trail Blazers win 6,040 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home court: the Trail Blazers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.2 points to the Trail Blazers in our ratings.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Trail Blazers 2nd (30.9%), Warriors 11th (26.3%).
Disadvantages Why Trail Blazers may not
- Upset odds: the Warriors win 3,960 of 10,000 simulations (40%). A 60% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Three-point shooting: Warriors 16th (35.7%), Trail Blazers 28th (34.1%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Trail Blazers lose by 13 or more.
- Weak spot: the Trail Blazers rank 30th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (16.3).
- Weak spot: the Trail Blazers rank 28th of 30 in three-point shooting (34.1%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | POR -3.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 232.5 |
| Win chance | GSW n/a · POR n/a | GSW 40% · POR 60% |
| Fair moneyline | GSW +153 · POR -153 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Trail Blazers 118, Warriors 115.
- 80% of simulations land between Warriors by 13 and Trail Blazers by 20.
Side by side
| GSW | POR | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 3-1 |
| -0.7 19 | Net rating | -0.5 18 |
| 112.2 16 | Offensive rating | 110.9 21 |
| 112.9 17 | Defensive rating | 111.4 12 |
| 55.0% 12 | Effective FG% | 53.2% 24 |
| 55.6% 24 | Opponent eFG% | 54.1% 12 |
| 15.5 27 | Turnovers per 100 | 16.3 30 |
| 26.3% 11 | Offensive rebound % | 30.9% 2 |
| 35.7% 16 | 3-point % | 34.1% 28 |
| 102.3 17 | Pace | 103.7 11 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-13 | 2025-26 | POR 97 @ GSW 119 | GSW |
| 2025-12-14 | 2025-26 | GSW 131 @ POR 136 | POR |
| 2025-11-21 | 2025-26 | POR 127 @ GSW 123 | POR |
| 2025-10-24 | 2025-26 | GSW 119 @ POR 139 | POR |
| 2025-04-11 | 2024-25 | GSW 103 @ POR 86 | GSW |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works