GSW

Golden State Warriors @ Sacramento Kings

Any-day matchup · ratings as of Oct 30, 7:50 PM ET

SAC

Our pick

GSWGolden State Warriors

67% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 67% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.

AZMango model

GSW 67%SAC 33%

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why Warriors can win

Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.9 points to the Warriors in our ratings.
Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Warriors -1.8, Kings -16.6.
The Warriors' shooting (55.0% eFG%, 12th in the NBA) meets a Kings defense that ranks 29th.
Simulation: the Warriors win 6,700 of 10,000 simulated games.
Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 2.5 points to the Warriors in our ratings.

Disadvantages Why Warriors may not

Home court: the Kings play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Upset odds: the Kings win 3,300 of 10,000 simulations (33%). A 67% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Kings 14th (14.1), Warriors 27th (15.5).
Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Warriors lose by 11 or more.
Weak spot: the Warriors rank 27th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (15.5).

The line and our numbers

	Market	AZMango
Spread	No line yet	GSW -5.7
Total points	n/a	234.3
Win chance	GSW n/a · SAC n/a	GSW 67% · SAC 33%
Fair moneyline		GSW -203 · SAC +203

No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

10,000 simulated games, possession by possession

Typical score: Kings 114, Warriors 120.
80% of simulations land between Warriors by 22 and Kings by 11.

See live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

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Side by side

GSW		SAC
2-3	Record	0-5
-0.7 19	Net rating	-10.1 29
112.2 16	Offensive rating	108.3 28
112.9 17	Defensive rating	118.5 28
55.0% 12	Effective FG%	52.4% 29
55.6% 24	Opponent eFG%	57.3% 29
15.5 27	Turnovers per 100	14.1 14
26.3% 11	Offensive rebound %	25.8% 14
35.7% 16	3-point %	33.8% 30
102.3 17	Pace	102.4 16

Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).

Last 5 meetings

Date	Season	Score	Winner
2026-04-10	2025-26	GSW 118 @ SAC 124	SAC
2026-04-07	2025-26	SAC 105 @ GSW 110	GSW
2026-01-09	2025-26	SAC 103 @ GSW 137	GSW
2025-11-05	2025-26	GSW 116 @ SAC 121	SAC
2025-03-13	2024-25	SAC 104 @ GSW 130	GSW

No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.

Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works

Player matchups

GSW

Stephen Curry G

26.7 pts, 3.6 reb, 4.6 ast in 30.9 min, 47% FG

vs a defense ranked 28 of 30 (opponent eFG% 57.3%)

GSW

Jimmy Butler III F

20 pts, 5.6 reb, 4.9 ast in 31.2 min, 52% FG

vs a defense ranked 28 of 30 (opponent eFG% 57.3%)

GSW

Yaxel Lendeborg F

22.6 pts, 9.2 reb, 4 ast in 33.6 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 28 of 30 (opponent eFG% 57.3%)

SAC

Domantas Sabonis F

16.1 pts, 12.4 reb, 4.8 ast in 31.2 min, 57% FG

vs a defense ranked 17 of 30 (opponent eFG% 55.6%)

SAC

Zach LaVine G

20 pts, 2.8 reb, 2.4 ast in 32 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 17 of 30 (opponent eFG% 55.6%)

SAC

Darius Acuff Jr. G

24 pts, 3.4 reb, 6.6 ast in 36.4 min, 38% FG

vs a defense ranked 17 of 30 (opponent eFG% 55.6%)

Per-game averages, 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons. Ordered by Game Score.

Last time they met

The Kings beat the Warriors 124-118 at home (2026-04-10). The difference: they won the boards 49 to 36 and they made 17 threes to 14, a 9-point swing. Devin Carter led the Kings with 29 points.