GSW
SAS
Golden State Warriors @ San Antonio Spurs
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
SASSan Antonio Spurs
73% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 73% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Spurs can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.3 points to the Spurs in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Spurs 2nd (+7.7), Warriors 19th (-0.7).
- Simulation: the Spurs win 7,270 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The Spurs' shooting (55.1% eFG%, 8th in the NBA) meets a Warriors defense that ranks 24th.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Spurs +6.6, Warriors -1.8.
Disadvantages Why Spurs may not
- Upset odds: the Warriors win 2,730 of 10,000 simulations (27%). A 73% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Warriors 5th (15.7), Spurs 25th (13.0).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Spurs lose by 9 or more.
- Weak spot: the Spurs rank 25th of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (13.0).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SAS -8.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 230.2 |
| Win chance | GSW n/a · SAS n/a | GSW 27% · SAS 73% |
| Fair moneyline | GSW +267 · SAS -267 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Spurs 119, Warriors 111.
- 80% of simulations land between Warriors by 9 and Spurs by 25.
Side by side
| GSW | SAS | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 3-2 |
| -0.7 19 | Net rating | +7.7 2 |
| 112.2 16 | Offensive rating | 115.2 5 |
| 112.9 17 | Defensive rating | 107.5 3 |
| 55.0% 12 | Effective FG% | 55.1% 8 |
| 55.6% 24 | Opponent eFG% | 51.4% 2 |
| 15.5 27 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.3 6 |
| 26.3% 11 | Offensive rebound % | 26.4% 10 |
| 35.7% 16 | 3-point % | 35.8% 14 |
| 102.3 17 | Pace | 102.5 15 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-01 | 2025-26 | SAS 127 @ GSW 113 | SAS |
| 2026-02-11 | 2025-26 | SAS 126 @ GSW 113 | SAS |
| 2025-11-14 | 2025-26 | GSW 109 @ SAS 108 | GSW |
| 2025-11-12 | 2025-26 | GSW 125 @ SAS 120 | GSW |
| 2025-04-09 | 2024-25 | SAS 114 @ GSW 111 | SAS |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works