GSW
TOR
Golden State Warriors @ Toronto Raptors
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
TORToronto Raptors
66% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 66% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Raptors can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Raptors +15.0, Warriors -1.8.
- Simulation: the Raptors win 6,610 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.3 points to the Raptors in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Raptors 9th (+3.0), Warriors 19th (-0.7).
- Home court: the Raptors play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Disadvantages Why Raptors may not
- Upset odds: the Warriors win 3,390 of 10,000 simulations (34%). A 66% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Raptors lose by 11 or more.
- Weak spot: the Raptors rank 21st of 30 in three-point shooting (35.2%).
- Weak spot: the Raptors rank 20th of 30 in defensive rebounding (share of misses) (73.6%).
- Weak spot: the Raptors rank 20th of 30 in points per game (114.4).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | TOR -5.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 228.8 |
| Win chance | GSW n/a · TOR n/a | GSW 34% · TOR 66% |
| Fair moneyline | GSW +195 · TOR -195 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Raptors 118, Warriors 112.
- 80% of simulations land between Warriors by 11 and Raptors by 22.
Side by side
| GSW | TOR | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 3-1 |
| -0.7 19 | Net rating | +3.0 9 |
| 112.2 16 | Offensive rating | 112.4 15 |
| 112.9 17 | Defensive rating | 109.4 7 |
| 55.0% 12 | Effective FG% | 54.3% 15 |
| 55.6% 24 | Opponent eFG% | 53.8% 8 |
| 15.5 27 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.6 8 |
| 26.3% 11 | Offensive rebound % | 25.7% 15 |
| 35.7% 16 | 3-point % | 35.2% 21 |
| 102.3 17 | Pace | 101.8 21 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-20 | 2025-26 | TOR 145 @ GSW 127 | TOR |
| 2025-12-28 | 2025-26 | GSW 127 @ TOR 141 | TOR |
| 2025-03-20 | 2024-25 | TOR 114 @ GSW 117 | GSW |
| 2025-01-13 | 2024-25 | GSW 101 @ TOR 104 | TOR |
| 2024-03-01 | 2023-24 | GSW 120 @ TOR 105 | GSW |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works