GSW
UTA
Golden State Warriors @ Utah Jazz
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
GSWGolden State Warriors
58% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 58% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Warriors can win
- The Warriors' shooting (55.0% eFG%, 12th in the NBA) meets a Jazz defense that ranks 30th.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.9 points to the Warriors in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Warriors win 5,800 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The Warriors' offense (112.2 points per 100 possessions, 16th in the NBA) meets a Jazz defense that ranks 29th.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Warriors 19th (-0.7), Jazz 27th (-7.9).
Disadvantages Why Warriors may not
- Upset odds: the Jazz win 4,200 of 10,000 simulations (42%). A 58% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home court: the Jazz play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Warriors lose by 14 or more.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Jazz 8th (0.22), Warriors 24th (0.20).
- Weak spot: the Warriors rank 27th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (15.5).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | GSW -2.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 235.8 |
| Win chance | GSW n/a · UTA n/a | GSW 58% · UTA 42% |
| Fair moneyline | GSW -138 · UTA +138 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Jazz 117, Warriors 119.
- 80% of simulations land between Warriors by 19 and Jazz by 14.
Side by side
| GSW | UTA | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 1-4 |
| -0.7 19 | Net rating | -7.9 27 |
| 112.2 16 | Offensive rating | 111.1 20 |
| 112.9 17 | Defensive rating | 119.0 29 |
| 55.0% 12 | Effective FG% | 53.6% 20 |
| 55.6% 24 | Opponent eFG% | 57.6% 30 |
| 15.5 27 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.8 21 |
| 26.3% 11 | Offensive rebound % | 26.3% 12 |
| 35.7% 16 | 3-point % | 34.4% 24 |
| 102.3 17 | Pace | 105.6 2 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-09 | 2025-26 | GSW 116 @ UTA 119 | UTA |
| 2026-01-28 | 2025-26 | GSW 140 @ UTA 124 | GSW |
| 2026-01-03 | 2025-26 | UTA 114 @ GSW 123 | GSW |
| 2025-11-24 | 2025-26 | UTA 117 @ GSW 134 | GSW |
| 2025-02-05 | 2024-25 | GSW 128 @ UTA 131 | UTA |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works