GSW
WAS
Golden State Warriors @ Washington Wizards
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
GSWGolden State Warriors
58% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 58% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Warriors can win
- The Warriors' shooting (55.0% eFG%, 12th in the NBA) meets a Wizards defense that ranks 27th.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.8 points to the Warriors in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Warriors 19th (-0.7), Wizards 30th (-10.9).
- The Warriors' offense (112.2 points per 100 possessions, 16th in the NBA) meets a Wizards defense that ranks 30th.
- Simulation: the Warriors win 5,790 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Warriors may not
- Upset odds: the Wizards win 4,210 of 10,000 simulations (42%). A 58% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home court: the Wizards play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Warriors lose by 14 or more.
- Body clock: the Warriors cross 3 time zones.
- Weak spot: the Warriors rank 27th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (15.5).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | GSW -2.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 233.8 |
| Win chance | GSW n/a · WAS n/a | GSW 58% · WAS 42% |
| Fair moneyline | GSW -138 · WAS +138 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Wizards 116, Warriors 118.
- 80% of simulations land between Warriors by 19 and Wizards by 14.
Side by side
| GSW | WAS | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 2-3 |
| -0.7 19 | Net rating | -10.9 30 |
| 112.2 16 | Offensive rating | 108.2 29 |
| 112.9 17 | Defensive rating | 119.2 30 |
| 55.0% 12 | Effective FG% | 53.5% 21 |
| 55.6% 24 | Opponent eFG% | 55.9% 27 |
| 15.5 27 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.0 23 |
| 26.3% 11 | Offensive rebound % | 23.9% 22 |
| 35.7% 16 | 3-point % | 35.5% 18 |
| 102.3 17 | Pace | 104.3 5 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-27 | 2025-26 | WAS 126 @ GSW 131 | GSW |
| 2026-03-16 | 2025-26 | GSW 125 @ WAS 117 | GSW |
| 2025-01-18 | 2024-25 | WAS 114 @ GSW 122 | GSW |
| 2024-11-04 | 2024-25 | GSW 125 @ WAS 112 | GSW |
| 2024-02-27 | 2023-24 | GSW 123 @ WAS 112 | GSW |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works