HOU
ATL
Houston Rockets @ Atlanta Hawks
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
HOUHouston Rockets
60% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 60% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Rockets can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.3 points to the Rockets in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Rockets +14.2, Hawks +4.2.
- Simulation: the Rockets win 6,050 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Rockets 6th (+5.2), Hawks 14th (+1.2).
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 1.7 points to the Rockets in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Rockets may not
- Upset odds: the Hawks win 3,950 of 10,000 simulations (40%). A 60% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home court: the Hawks play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Hawks 7th (13.6), Rockets 26th (15.4).
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Hawks 6th (15.4), Rockets 19th (13.8).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Rockets lose by 13 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | HOU -3.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 230 |
| Win chance | HOU n/a · ATL n/a | HOU 60% · ATL 40% |
| Fair moneyline | HOU -153 · ATL +153 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Hawks 114, Rockets 117.
- 80% of simulations land between Rockets by 20 and Hawks by 13.
Side by side
| HOU | ATL | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-0 | Record | 3-3 |
| +5.2 6 | Net rating | +1.2 14 |
| 114.6 8 | Offensive rating | 112.5 14 |
| 109.4 6 | Defensive rating | 111.3 11 |
| 54.0% 18 | Effective FG% | 55.0% 11 |
| 53.0% 6 | Opponent eFG% | 54.6% 19 |
| 15.4 26 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.6 7 |
| 34.3% 1 | Offensive rebound % | 24.3% 20 |
| 36.2% 11 | 3-point % | 36.7% 7 |
| 100.0 27 | Pace | 104.3 6 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-26 | 2026-27 | ATL 110 @ HOU 120 | HOU |
| 2026-10-24 | 2026-27 | HOU 121 @ ATL 114 | HOU |
| 2026-03-20 | 2025-26 | ATL 95 @ HOU 117 | HOU |
| 2026-01-29 | 2025-26 | HOU 104 @ ATL 86 | HOU |
| 2025-03-25 | 2024-25 | ATL 114 @ HOU 121 | HOU |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works