HOU
BOS
Houston Rockets @ Boston Celtics
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
HOUHouston Rockets
54% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Rockets can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Rockets +14.2, Celtics +8.0.
- Simulation: the Rockets win 5,350 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.7 points to the Rockets in our ratings.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 1.2 points to the Rockets in our ratings.
- Strength: the Rockets rank 1st of 30 in offensive rebounding (share of misses) (34.3%).
Disadvantages Why Rockets may not
- Upset odds: the Celtics win 4,650 of 10,000 simulations (46%). A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Celtics 2nd (12.7), Rockets 26th (15.4).
- Home court: the Celtics play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Rockets lose by 16 or more.
- Weak spot: the Rockets rank 26th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (15.4).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | HOU -1.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 224.2 |
| Win chance | HOU n/a · BOS n/a | HOU 54% · BOS 46% |
| Fair moneyline | HOU -115 · BOS +115 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Celtics 112, Rockets 113.
- 80% of simulations land between Rockets by 18 and Celtics by 16.
Side by side
| HOU | BOS | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-0 | Record | 3-1 |
| +5.2 6 | Net rating | +7.5 4 |
| 114.6 8 | Offensive rating | 116.6 2 |
| 109.4 6 | Defensive rating | 109.1 5 |
| 54.0% 18 | Effective FG% | 55.1% 10 |
| 53.0% 6 | Opponent eFG% | 52.2% 4 |
| 15.4 26 | Turnovers per 100 | 12.7 2 |
| 34.3% 1 | Offensive rebound % | 29.0% 6 |
| 36.2% 11 | 3-point % | 36.5% 8 |
| 100.0 27 | Pace | 98.1 30 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-04 | 2025-26 | BOS 114 @ HOU 93 | BOS |
| 2025-11-01 | 2025-26 | HOU 128 @ BOS 101 | HOU |
| 2025-01-27 | 2024-25 | HOU 114 @ BOS 112 | HOU |
| 2025-01-03 | 2024-25 | BOS 109 @ HOU 86 | BOS |
| 2024-01-21 | 2023-24 | BOS 116 @ HOU 107 | BOS |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works