HOU
CHA
Houston Rockets @ Charlotte Hornets
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
HOUHouston Rockets
66% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 66% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Rockets can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Rockets +14.2, Hornets -7.2.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.1 points to the Rockets in our ratings.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 3.2 points to the Rockets in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Rockets win 6,600 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Rockets 19th (13.8), Hornets 28th (12.7).
Disadvantages Why Rockets may not
- Home court: the Hornets play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Upset odds: the Hornets win 3,400 of 10,000 simulations (34%). A 66% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Rockets lose by 12 or more.
- Weak spot: the Rockets rank 26th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (15.4).
- Three-point shooting: Hornets 4th (37.2%), Rockets 11th (36.2%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | HOU -5.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 220.2 |
| Win chance | HOU n/a · CHA n/a | HOU 66% · CHA 34% |
| Fair moneyline | HOU -194 · CHA +194 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Hornets 108, Rockets 113.
- 80% of simulations land between Rockets by 22 and Hornets by 12.
Side by side
| HOU | CHA | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-0 | Record | 3-2 |
| +5.2 6 | Net rating | +3.7 8 |
| 114.6 8 | Offensive rating | 114.6 7 |
| 109.4 6 | Defensive rating | 110.9 10 |
| 54.0% 18 | Effective FG% | 54.7% 13 |
| 53.0% 6 | Opponent eFG% | 54.0% 10 |
| 15.4 26 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.6 28 |
| 34.3% 1 | Offensive rebound % | 30.5% 4 |
| 36.2% 11 | 3-point % | 37.2% 4 |
| 100.0 27 | Pace | 100.3 25 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-19 | 2025-26 | HOU 105 @ CHA 101 | HOU |
| 2026-02-05 | 2025-26 | CHA 109 @ HOU 99 | CHA |
| 2024-12-23 | 2024-25 | HOU 114 @ CHA 101 | HOU |
| 2024-10-23 | 2024-25 | CHA 110 @ HOU 105 | CHA |
| 2024-01-26 | 2023-24 | HOU 138 @ CHA 104 | HOU |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works