HOU
CHI
Houston Rockets @ Chicago Bulls
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
HOUHouston Rockets
79% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 79% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why Rockets can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 7.8 points to the Rockets in our ratings.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 4.5 points to the Rockets in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Rockets +14.2, Bulls -16.2.
- Simulation: the Rockets win 7,920 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Rockets 6th (+5.2), Bulls 24th (-5.5).
Disadvantages Why Rockets may not
- Home court: the Bulls play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Upset odds: the Bulls win 2,080 of 10,000 simulations (21%). A 79% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Rockets lose by 6 or more.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Bulls 17th (14.5), Rockets 26th (15.4).
- Weak spot: the Rockets rank 26th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (15.4).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | HOU -10.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 235.6 |
| Win chance | HOU n/a · CHI n/a | HOU 79% · CHI 21% |
| Fair moneyline | HOU -381 · CHI +381 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Bulls 113, Rockets 123.
- 80% of simulations land between Rockets by 27 and Bulls by 6.
Side by side
| HOU | CHI | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-0 | Record | 1-4 |
| +5.2 6 | Net rating | -5.5 24 |
| 114.6 8 | Offensive rating | 110.1 25 |
| 109.4 6 | Defensive rating | 115.6 25 |
| 54.0% 18 | Effective FG% | 54.3% 14 |
| 53.0% 6 | Opponent eFG% | 55.3% 21 |
| 15.4 26 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.5 17 |
| 34.3% 1 | Offensive rebound % | 23.4% 26 |
| 36.2% 11 | 3-point % | 35.0% 22 |
| 100.0 27 | Pace | 105.5 3 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-23 | 2025-26 | HOU 124 @ CHI 132 | CHI |
| 2026-01-13 | 2025-26 | CHI 113 @ HOU 119 | HOU |
| 2025-03-15 | 2024-25 | CHI 114 @ HOU 117 | HOU |
| 2024-11-17 | 2024-25 | HOU 143 @ CHI 107 | HOU |
| 2024-03-21 | 2023-24 | CHI 117 @ HOU 127 | HOU |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works