HOU
CLE
Houston Rockets @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
HOUHouston Rockets
62% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Rockets can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Rockets +14.2, Cavaliers +1.0.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.5 points to the Rockets in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Rockets win 6,150 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 2.1 points to the Rockets in our ratings.
- The Rockets' offense (114.6 points per 100 possessions, 8th in the NBA) meets a Cavaliers defense that ranks 15th.
Disadvantages Why Rockets may not
- Upset odds: the Cavaliers win 3,850 of 10,000 simulations (38%). A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home court: the Cavaliers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Cavaliers 15th (14.2), Rockets 26th (15.4).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Rockets lose by 13 or more.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Cavaliers 10th (14.7), Rockets 19th (13.8).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | HOU -3.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 228.4 |
| Win chance | HOU n/a · CLE n/a | HOU 62% · CLE 38% |
| Fair moneyline | HOU -160 · CLE +160 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Cavaliers 113, Rockets 116.
- 80% of simulations land between Rockets by 20 and Cavaliers by 13.
Side by side
| HOU | CLE | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-0 | Record | 3-2 |
| +5.2 6 | Net rating | +2.7 10 |
| 114.6 8 | Offensive rating | 114.5 9 |
| 109.4 6 | Defensive rating | 111.8 15 |
| 54.0% 18 | Effective FG% | 55.5% 7 |
| 53.0% 6 | Opponent eFG% | 54.2% 15 |
| 15.4 26 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.2 15 |
| 34.3% 1 | Offensive rebound % | 27.0% 8 |
| 36.2% 11 | 3-point % | 35.4% 19 |
| 100.0 27 | Pace | 102.6 14 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-27 | 2025-26 | CLE 100 @ HOU 117 | HOU |
| 2025-11-19 | 2025-26 | HOU 114 @ CLE 104 | HOU |
| 2025-01-25 | 2024-25 | HOU 135 @ CLE 131 | HOU |
| 2025-01-22 | 2024-25 | CLE 108 @ HOU 109 | HOU |
| 2024-03-16 | 2023-24 | CLE 103 @ HOU 117 | HOU |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works