HOU

Houston Rockets @ Denver Nuggets

Any-day matchup · ratings as of Oct 30, 7:50 PM ET

DEN

Our pick

HOUHouston Rockets

63% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 63% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.

AZMango model

HOU 63%DEN 37%

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why Rockets can win

Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Rockets +14.2, Nuggets -3.2.
Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.7 points to the Rockets in our ratings.
Simulation: the Rockets win 6,330 of 10,000 simulated games.
The Rockets' offense (114.6 points per 100 possessions, 8th in the NBA) meets a Nuggets defense that ranks 21st.
Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 2.1 points to the Rockets in our ratings.

Disadvantages Why Rockets may not

Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Nuggets 3rd (12.7), Rockets 26th (15.4).
Home court: the Nuggets play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Upset odds: the Nuggets win 3,670 of 10,000 simulations (37%). A 63% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Rockets lose by 12 or more.
The Nuggets' offense (118.2 points per 100 possessions, 1st in the NBA) meets a Rockets defense that ranks 6th.

The line and our numbers

	Market	AZMango
Spread	No line yet	HOU -4.2
Total points	n/a	227.6
Win chance	HOU n/a · DEN n/a	HOU 63% · DEN 37%
Fair moneyline		HOU -173 · DEN +173

No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

10,000 simulated games, possession by possession

Typical score: Nuggets 112, Rockets 116.
80% of simulations land between Rockets by 21 and Nuggets by 12.

See live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

Plain links. We are not paid for them and take no bets.

Side by side

HOU		DEN
5-0	Record	2-2
+5.2 6	Net rating	+4.1 7
114.6 8	Offensive rating	118.2 1
109.4 6	Defensive rating	114.1 21
54.0% 18	Effective FG%	56.9% 2
53.0% 6	Opponent eFG%	54.1% 13
15.4 26	Turnovers per 100	12.7 3
34.3% 1	Offensive rebound %	23.3% 28
36.2% 11	3-point %	38.8% 1
100.0 27	Pace	102.1 20

Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).

Last 5 meetings

Date	Season	Score	Winner
2026-03-11	2025-26	HOU 93 @ DEN 129	DEN
2025-12-20	2025-26	HOU 115 @ DEN 101	HOU
2025-12-15	2025-26	HOU 125 @ DEN 128	DEN
2025-11-21	2025-26	DEN 112 @ HOU 109	DEN
2025-04-13	2024-25	DEN 126 @ HOU 111	DEN

No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.

Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works

Player matchups

HOU

Kevin Durant F

25.7 pts, 5.5 reb, 4.7 ast in 36.4 min, 52% FG

vs a defense ranked 21 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.1%)

HOU

Alperen Sengun C

20.6 pts, 9 reb, 6.1 ast in 33.8 min, 52% FG

vs a defense ranked 21 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.1%)

HOU

Amen Thompson G

18.3 pts, 7.7 reb, 5.3 ast in 37.6 min, 53% FG

vs a defense ranked 21 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.1%)

DEN

Nikola Jokic C

27.2 pts, 12.8 reb, 10.5 ast in 35.3 min, 55% FG

vs a defense ranked 6 of 30 (opponent eFG% 53.0%)

DEN

Jamal Murray G

25.1 pts, 4.5 reb, 7 ast in 35.8 min, 47% FG

vs a defense ranked 6 of 30 (opponent eFG% 53.0%)

DEN

Aaron Gordon F

15.5 pts, 5.8 reb, 2.6 ast in 28.2 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 6 of 30 (opponent eFG% 53.0%)

Per-game averages, 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons. Ordered by Game Score.

Last time they met

The Nuggets beat the Rockets 129-93 at home (2026-03-11). The difference: they shot 65% effective field goal percentage to 45% and they made 17 threes to 4, a 39-point swing. Jamal Murray led the Nuggets with 30 points.