HOU
DET
Houston Rockets @ Detroit Pistons
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
HOUHouston Rockets
50% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 50% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Rockets can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Rockets +14.2, Pistons +6.4.
- Simulation: the Rockets win 5,000 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.0 points to the Rockets in our ratings.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 0.8 points to the Rockets in our ratings.
- Strength: the Rockets rank 1st of 30 in offensive rebounding (share of misses) (34.3%).
Disadvantages Why Rockets may not
- Upset odds: the Pistons win 5,000 of 10,000 simulations (50%). A 50% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Home court: the Pistons play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Pistons 2nd (16.3), Rockets 19th (13.8).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Rockets lose by 17 or more.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Pistons 6th (0.22), Rockets 18th (0.20).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DET -0.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 221.1 |
| Win chance | HOU n/a · DET n/a | HOU 50% · DET 50% |
| Fair moneyline | HOU -100 · DET +100 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Pistons 111, Rockets 111.
- 80% of simulations land between Rockets by 17 and Pistons by 17.
Side by side
| HOU | DET | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-0 | Record | 4-1 |
| +5.2 6 | Net rating | +7.0 5 |
| 114.6 8 | Offensive rating | 113.2 12 |
| 109.4 6 | Defensive rating | 106.2 2 |
| 54.0% 18 | Effective FG% | 54.2% 16 |
| 53.0% 6 | Opponent eFG% | 51.4% 1 |
| 15.4 26 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.0 24 |
| 34.3% 1 | Offensive rebound % | 30.8% 3 |
| 36.2% 11 | 3-point % | 35.8% 15 |
| 100.0 27 | Pace | 102.1 19 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-23 | 2025-26 | HOU 111 @ DET 104 | HOU |
| 2025-10-24 | 2025-26 | DET 115 @ HOU 111 | DET |
| 2025-01-20 | 2024-25 | DET 107 @ HOU 96 | DET |
| 2024-11-10 | 2024-25 | HOU 101 @ DET 99 | HOU |
| 2024-01-12 | 2023-24 | HOU 112 @ DET 110 | HOU |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works