HOU
GSW
Houston Rockets @ Golden State Warriors
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
HOUHouston Rockets
66% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 66% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Rockets can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Rockets +14.2, Warriors -1.8.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.5 points to the Rockets in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Rockets win 6,630 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Rockets 6th (+5.2), Warriors 19th (-0.7).
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 2.6 points to the Rockets in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Rockets may not
- Home court: the Warriors play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Upset odds: the Warriors win 3,370 of 10,000 simulations (34%). A 66% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Warriors 5th (15.7), Rockets 19th (13.8).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Rockets lose by 12 or more.
- Body clock: the Rockets cross 2 time zones.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | HOU -5.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 228.8 |
| Win chance | HOU n/a · GSW n/a | HOU 66% · GSW 34% |
| Fair moneyline | HOU -197 · GSW +197 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Warriors 112, Rockets 117.
- 80% of simulations land between Rockets by 22 and Warriors by 12.
Side by side
| HOU | GSW | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-0 | Record | 2-3 |
| +5.2 6 | Net rating | -0.7 19 |
| 114.6 8 | Offensive rating | 112.2 16 |
| 109.4 6 | Defensive rating | 112.9 17 |
| 54.0% 18 | Effective FG% | 55.0% 12 |
| 53.0% 6 | Opponent eFG% | 55.6% 24 |
| 15.4 26 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.5 27 |
| 34.3% 1 | Offensive rebound % | 26.3% 11 |
| 36.2% 11 | 3-point % | 35.7% 16 |
| 100.0 27 | Pace | 102.3 17 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | 2025-26 | HOU 117 @ GSW 116 | HOU |
| 2026-03-05 | 2025-26 | GSW 115 @ HOU 113 | GSW |
| 2025-11-26 | 2025-26 | HOU 104 @ GSW 100 | HOU |
| 2025-05-04 | Playoffs | GSW 103 @ HOU 89 | GSW |
| 2025-05-02 | Playoffs | HOU 115 @ GSW 107 | HOU |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works