HOU
LAC
Houston Rockets @ LA Clippers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
HOUHouston Rockets
64% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Rockets can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Rockets +14.2, Clippers -1.5.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.9 points to the Rockets in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Rockets win 6,410 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 2.4 points to the Rockets in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Rockets 6th (+5.2), Clippers 15th (+0.9).
Disadvantages Why Rockets may not
- Home court: the Clippers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Upset odds: the Clippers win 3,590 of 10,000 simulations (36%). A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Rockets lose by 12 or more.
- Body clock: the Rockets cross 2 time zones.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Clippers 3rd (0.24), Rockets 18th (0.20).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | HOU -4.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 223.1 |
| Win chance | HOU n/a · LAC n/a | HOU 64% · LAC 36% |
| Fair moneyline | HOU -179 · LAC +179 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Clippers 109, Rockets 114.
- 80% of simulations land between Rockets by 22 and Clippers by 12.
Side by side
| HOU | LAC | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-0 | Record | 1-3 |
| +5.2 6 | Net rating | +0.9 15 |
| 114.6 8 | Offensive rating | 114.0 10 |
| 109.4 6 | Defensive rating | 113.0 18 |
| 54.0% 18 | Effective FG% | 55.9% 4 |
| 53.0% 6 | Opponent eFG% | 54.6% 18 |
| 15.4 26 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.7 20 |
| 34.3% 1 | Offensive rebound % | 23.8% 24 |
| 36.2% 11 | 3-point % | 36.9% 5 |
| 100.0 27 | Pace | 99.6 29 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-11 | 2025-26 | LAC 105 @ HOU 102 | LAC |
| 2026-02-10 | 2025-26 | LAC 95 @ HOU 102 | HOU |
| 2025-12-23 | 2025-26 | HOU 108 @ LAC 128 | LAC |
| 2025-12-11 | 2025-26 | LAC 113 @ HOU 115 | HOU |
| 2025-04-09 | 2024-25 | HOU 117 @ LAC 134 | LAC |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works