HOU
MEM
Houston Rockets @ Memphis Grizzlies
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
HOUHouston Rockets
62% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Rockets can win
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Rockets 6th (+5.2), Grizzlies 22nd (-4.8).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.2 points to the Rockets in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Rockets win 6,170 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The Rockets' offense (114.6 points per 100 possessions, 8th in the NBA) meets a Grizzlies defense that ranks 22nd.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 2.3 points to the Rockets in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Rockets may not
- Upset odds: the Grizzlies win 3,830 of 10,000 simulations (38%). A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home court: the Grizzlies play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Rockets lose by 13 or more.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Grizzlies 8th (14.9), Rockets 19th (13.8).
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Grizzlies 18th (14.5), Rockets 26th (15.4).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | HOU -3.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 227.2 |
| Win chance | HOU n/a · MEM n/a | HOU 62% · MEM 38% |
| Fair moneyline | HOU -161 · MEM +161 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Grizzlies 112, Rockets 116.
- 80% of simulations land between Rockets by 20 and Grizzlies by 13.
Side by side
| HOU | MEM | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-0 | Record | 5-0 |
| +5.2 6 | Net rating | -4.8 22 |
| 114.6 8 | Offensive rating | 110.2 23 |
| 109.4 6 | Defensive rating | 114.9 22 |
| 54.0% 18 | Effective FG% | 53.3% 23 |
| 53.0% 6 | Opponent eFG% | 55.8% 26 |
| 15.4 26 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.5 18 |
| 34.3% 1 | Offensive rebound % | 25.2% 17 |
| 36.2% 11 | 3-point % | 35.5% 17 |
| 100.0 27 | Pace | 104.3 7 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | 2025-26 | MEM 101 @ HOU 132 | HOU |
| 2026-03-27 | 2025-26 | HOU 119 @ MEM 109 | HOU |
| 2026-01-26 | 2025-26 | MEM 99 @ HOU 108 | HOU |
| 2025-11-05 | 2025-26 | HOU 124 @ MEM 109 | HOU |
| 2025-01-30 | 2024-25 | HOU 119 @ MEM 120 | MEM |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works