HOU
MIL
Houston Rockets @ Milwaukee Bucks
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
HOUHouston Rockets
80% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 80% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why Rockets can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 8.0 points to the Rockets in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Rockets +14.2, Bucks -10.8.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 4.5 points to the Rockets in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Rockets 6th (+5.2), Bucks 25th (-6.4).
- Simulation: the Rockets win 8,010 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Rockets may not
- Home court: the Bucks play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Upset odds: the Bucks win 1,990 of 10,000 simulations (20%). A 80% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Rockets lose by 6 or more.
- Three-point shooting: Bucks 2nd (38.4%), Rockets 11th (36.2%).
- Weak spot: the Rockets rank 26th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (15.4).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | HOU -10.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 228.1 |
| Win chance | HOU n/a · MIL n/a | HOU 80% · MIL 20% |
| Fair moneyline | HOU -404 · MIL +404 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Bucks 109, Rockets 120.
- 80% of simulations land between Rockets by 27 and Bucks by 6.
Side by side
| HOU | MIL | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-0 | Record | 1-4 |
| +5.2 6 | Net rating | -6.4 25 |
| 114.6 8 | Offensive rating | 110.1 24 |
| 109.4 6 | Defensive rating | 116.5 27 |
| 54.0% 18 | Effective FG% | 56.3% 3 |
| 53.0% 6 | Opponent eFG% | 55.7% 25 |
| 15.4 26 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.2 25 |
| 34.3% 1 | Offensive rebound % | 21.7% 30 |
| 36.2% 11 | 3-point % | 38.4% 2 |
| 100.0 27 | Pace | 100.6 22 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-28 | 2026-27 | HOU 132 @ MIL 100 | HOU |
| 2026-04-01 | 2025-26 | MIL 113 @ HOU 119 | HOU |
| 2025-11-09 | 2025-26 | HOU 122 @ MIL 115 | HOU |
| 2025-02-25 | 2024-25 | MIL 97 @ HOU 100 | HOU |
| 2024-11-18 | 2024-25 | HOU 100 @ MIL 101 | MIL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works