HOU
NYK
Houston Rockets @ New York Knicks
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
HOUHouston Rockets
53% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 53% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Rockets can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Rockets +14.2, Knicks +0.2.
- Simulation: the Rockets win 5,340 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.5 points to the Rockets in our ratings.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 1.2 points to the Rockets in our ratings.
- Strength: the Rockets rank 1st of 30 in offensive rebounding (share of misses) (34.3%).
Disadvantages Why Rockets may not
- Upset odds: the Knicks win 4,660 of 10,000 simulations (47%). A 53% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Home court: the Knicks play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Knicks 9th (13.7), Rockets 26th (15.4).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Rockets lose by 16 or more.
- Three-point shooting: Knicks 3rd (37.5%), Rockets 11th (36.2%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | HOU -0.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 221.6 |
| Win chance | HOU n/a · NYK n/a | HOU 53% · NYK 47% |
| Fair moneyline | HOU -115 · NYK +115 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Knicks 110, Rockets 112.
- 80% of simulations land between Rockets by 18 and Knicks by 16.
Side by side
| HOU | NYK | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-0 | Record | 2-3 |
| +5.2 6 | Net rating | +7.6 3 |
| 114.6 8 | Offensive rating | 116.4 3 |
| 109.4 6 | Defensive rating | 108.7 4 |
| 54.0% 18 | Effective FG% | 55.6% 5 |
| 53.0% 6 | Opponent eFG% | 53.3% 7 |
| 15.4 26 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.7 9 |
| 34.3% 1 | Offensive rebound % | 29.3% 5 |
| 36.2% 11 | 3-point % | 37.5% 3 |
| 100.0 27 | Pace | 99.8 28 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | 2025-26 | NYK 94 @ HOU 111 | HOU |
| 2026-02-21 | 2025-26 | HOU 106 @ NYK 108 | NYK |
| 2025-02-03 | 2024-25 | HOU 118 @ NYK 124 | NYK |
| 2024-11-04 | 2024-25 | NYK 97 @ HOU 109 | HOU |
| 2024-02-12 | 2023-24 | NYK 103 @ HOU 105 | HOU |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works