HOU
OKC
Houston Rockets @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
HOUHouston Rockets
51% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 51% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Rockets can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Rockets +14.2, Thunder +3.6.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Rockets 1st (34.3%), Thunder 27th (23.4%).
- Simulation: the Rockets win 5,100 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.0 points to the Rockets in our ratings.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 0.8 points to the Rockets in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Rockets may not
- Upset odds: the Thunder win 4,900 of 10,000 simulations (49%). A 51% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Thunder 1st (12.5), Rockets 26th (15.4).
- Home court: the Thunder play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Thunder 1st (16.4), Rockets 19th (13.8).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Rockets lose by 17 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | HOU -0.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 222.6 |
| Win chance | HOU n/a · OKC n/a | HOU 51% · OKC 49% |
| Fair moneyline | HOU -104 · OKC +104 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Thunder 111, Rockets 112.
- 80% of simulations land between Rockets by 17 and Thunder by 17.
Side by side
| HOU | OKC | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-0 | Record | 4-1 |
| +5.2 6 | Net rating | +10.0 1 |
| 114.6 8 | Offensive rating | 115.4 4 |
| 109.4 6 | Defensive rating | 105.5 1 |
| 54.0% 18 | Effective FG% | 55.6% 6 |
| 53.0% 6 | Opponent eFG% | 51.8% 3 |
| 15.4 26 | Turnovers per 100 | 12.5 1 |
| 34.3% 1 | Offensive rebound % | 23.4% 27 |
| 36.2% 11 | 3-point % | 36.2% 10 |
| 100.0 27 | Pace | 102.2 18 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-07 | 2025-26 | HOU 112 @ OKC 106 | HOU |
| 2026-01-15 | 2025-26 | OKC 111 @ HOU 91 | OKC |
| 2025-10-21 | 2025-26 | HOU 124 @ OKC 125 | OKC |
| 2025-04-04 | 2024-25 | OKC 111 @ HOU 125 | HOU |
| 2025-03-03 | 2024-25 | HOU 128 @ OKC 137 | OKC |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works