HOU
ORL
Houston Rockets @ Orlando Magic
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
HOUHouston Rockets
71% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 71% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Rockets can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 5.7 points to the Rockets in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Rockets +14.2, Magic -12.5.
- Simulation: the Rockets win 7,080 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 3.2 points to the Rockets in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Rockets 6th (+5.2), Magic 17th (-0.2).
Disadvantages Why Rockets may not
- Home court: the Magic play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Upset odds: the Magic win 2,920 of 10,000 simulations (29%). A 71% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Magic 11th (13.9), Rockets 26th (15.4).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Rockets lose by 10 or more.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Magic 1st (0.25), Rockets 18th (0.20).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | HOU -7.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 226.7 |
| Win chance | HOU n/a · ORL n/a | HOU 71% · ORL 29% |
| Fair moneyline | HOU -243 · ORL +243 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Magic 110, Rockets 117.
- 80% of simulations land between Rockets by 24 and Magic by 10.
Side by side
| HOU | ORL | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-0 | Record | 1-3 |
| +5.2 6 | Net rating | -0.2 17 |
| 114.6 8 | Offensive rating | 110.4 22 |
| 109.4 6 | Defensive rating | 110.6 9 |
| 54.0% 18 | Effective FG% | 52.4% 28 |
| 53.0% 6 | Opponent eFG% | 53.9% 9 |
| 15.4 26 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.9 11 |
| 34.3% 1 | Offensive rebound % | 24.8% 19 |
| 36.2% 11 | 3-point % | 34.0% 29 |
| 100.0 27 | Pace | 103.1 12 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-26 | 2025-26 | HOU 113 @ ORL 108 | HOU |
| 2025-11-16 | 2025-26 | ORL 113 @ HOU 117 | HOU |
| 2025-03-19 | 2024-25 | HOU 116 @ ORL 108 | HOU |
| 2025-03-10 | 2024-25 | ORL 84 @ HOU 97 | HOU |
| 2024-04-09 | 2023-24 | ORL 106 @ HOU 118 | HOU |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works