HOU
PHX
Houston Rockets @ Phoenix Suns
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
HOUHouston Rockets
69% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 69% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Rockets can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 5.1 points to the Rockets in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Rockets +14.2, Suns -14.3.
- Simulation: the Rockets win 6,920 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 3.2 points to the Rockets in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Rockets 6th (+5.2), Suns 16th (+0.2).
Disadvantages Why Rockets may not
- Home court: the Suns play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Upset odds: the Suns win 3,080 of 10,000 simulations (31%). A 69% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Suns 4th (16.0), Rockets 19th (13.8).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Rockets lose by 10 or more.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Suns 19th (14.5), Rockets 26th (15.4).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | HOU -6.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 225.3 |
| Win chance | HOU n/a · PHX n/a | HOU 69% · PHX 31% |
| Fair moneyline | HOU -225 · PHX +225 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Suns 109, Rockets 116.
- 80% of simulations land between Rockets by 24 and Suns by 10.
Side by side
| HOU | PHX | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-0 | Record | 1-2 |
| +5.2 6 | Net rating | +0.2 16 |
| 114.6 8 | Offensive rating | 111.8 17 |
| 109.4 6 | Defensive rating | 111.6 13 |
| 54.0% 18 | Effective FG% | 53.7% 19 |
| 53.0% 6 | Opponent eFG% | 54.3% 16 |
| 15.4 26 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.5 19 |
| 34.3% 1 | Offensive rebound % | 28.7% 7 |
| 36.2% 11 | 3-point % | 35.9% 13 |
| 100.0 27 | Pace | 100.3 26 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-07 | 2025-26 | HOU 119 @ PHX 105 | HOU |
| 2026-01-05 | 2025-26 | PHX 97 @ HOU 100 | HOU |
| 2025-12-05 | 2025-26 | PHX 98 @ HOU 117 | HOU |
| 2025-11-24 | 2025-26 | HOU 114 @ PHX 92 | HOU |
| 2025-03-30 | 2024-25 | HOU 148 @ PHX 109 | HOU |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works