HOU
POR
Houston Rockets @ Portland Trail Blazers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
HOUHouston Rockets
61% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 61% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Rockets can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.3 points to the Rockets in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Rockets 6th (+5.2), Trail Blazers 18th (-0.5).
- Simulation: the Rockets win 6,130 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 2.0 points to the Rockets in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Rockets 6th (+5.2), Trail Blazers 18th (-0.5).
Disadvantages Why Rockets may not
- Upset odds: the Trail Blazers win 3,870 of 10,000 simulations (39%). A 61% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home court: the Trail Blazers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Rockets lose by 13 or more.
- Body clock: the Rockets cross 2 time zones.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Trail Blazers 7th (15.0), Rockets 19th (13.8).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | HOU -3.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 228.1 |
| Win chance | HOU n/a · POR n/a | HOU 61% · POR 39% |
| Fair moneyline | HOU -158 · POR +158 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Trail Blazers 112, Rockets 116.
- 80% of simulations land between Rockets by 20 and Trail Blazers by 13.
Side by side
| HOU | POR | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-0 | Record | 3-1 |
| +5.2 6 | Net rating | -0.5 18 |
| 114.6 8 | Offensive rating | 110.9 21 |
| 109.4 6 | Defensive rating | 111.4 12 |
| 54.0% 18 | Effective FG% | 53.2% 24 |
| 53.0% 6 | Opponent eFG% | 54.1% 12 |
| 15.4 26 | Turnovers per 100 | 16.3 30 |
| 34.3% 1 | Offensive rebound % | 30.9% 2 |
| 36.2% 11 | 3-point % | 34.1% 28 |
| 100.0 27 | Pace | 103.7 11 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-06 | 2025-26 | POR 99 @ HOU 106 | HOU |
| 2026-01-09 | 2025-26 | HOU 105 @ POR 111 | POR |
| 2026-01-07 | 2025-26 | HOU 102 @ POR 103 | POR |
| 2025-11-14 | 2025-26 | POR 116 @ HOU 140 | HOU |
| 2025-01-18 | 2024-25 | HOU 125 @ POR 103 | HOU |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works