HOU
SAC
Houston Rockets @ Sacramento Kings
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
HOUHouston Rockets
83% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 83% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why Rockets can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 9.4 points to the Rockets in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Rockets 6th (+5.2), Kings 29th (-10.1).
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 5.0 points to the Rockets in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Rockets +14.2, Kings -16.6.
- Simulation: the Rockets win 8,320 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Rockets may not
- Home court: the Kings play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Upset odds: the Kings win 1,680 of 10,000 simulations (17%). A 83% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Kings 14th (14.1), Rockets 26th (15.4).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Rockets lose by 5 or more.
- Body clock: the Rockets cross 2 time zones.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | HOU -12.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 229.9 |
| Win chance | HOU n/a · SAC n/a | HOU 83% · SAC 17% |
| Fair moneyline | HOU -496 · SAC +496 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Kings 109, Rockets 121.
- 80% of simulations land between Rockets by 29 and Kings by 5.
Side by side
| HOU | SAC | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-0 | Record | 0-5 |
| +5.2 6 | Net rating | -10.1 29 |
| 114.6 8 | Offensive rating | 108.3 28 |
| 109.4 6 | Defensive rating | 118.5 28 |
| 54.0% 18 | Effective FG% | 52.4% 29 |
| 53.0% 6 | Opponent eFG% | 57.3% 29 |
| 15.4 26 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.1 14 |
| 34.3% 1 | Offensive rebound % | 25.8% 14 |
| 36.2% 11 | 3-point % | 33.8% 30 |
| 100.0 27 | Pace | 102.4 16 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-25 | 2025-26 | SAC 97 @ HOU 128 | HOU |
| 2026-01-11 | 2025-26 | HOU 98 @ SAC 111 | SAC |
| 2025-12-21 | 2025-26 | HOU 124 @ SAC 125 | SAC |
| 2025-12-03 | 2025-26 | SAC 95 @ HOU 121 | HOU |
| 2025-03-01 | 2024-25 | SAC 113 @ HOU 103 | SAC |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works