HOU

Houston Rockets @ San Antonio Spurs

Any-day matchup · ratings as of Oct 30, 7:50 PM ET

SAS

Our pick

SASSan Antonio Spurs

53% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 53% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.

AZMango model

HOU 47%SAS 53%

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why Spurs can win

Home court: the Spurs play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Spurs 6th (13.3), Rockets 26th (15.4).
Simulation: the Spurs win 5,310 of 10,000 simulated games.
Strength: the Spurs rank 2nd of 30 in net rating (points per 100 possessions) (+7.7).
Strength: the Spurs rank 2nd of 30 in point differential per game (+7.9).

Disadvantages Why Spurs may not

Upset odds: the Rockets win 4,690 of 10,000 simulations (47%). A 53% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Rockets +14.2, Spurs +6.6.
Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Spurs lose by 16 or more.
Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Rockets 1st (34.3%), Spurs 10th (26.4%).
Weak spot: the Spurs rank 25th of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (13.0).

The line and our numbers

	Market	AZMango
Spread	No line yet	SAS -1.1
Total points	n/a	225.8
Win chance	HOU n/a · SAS n/a	HOU 47% · SAS 53%
Fair moneyline		HOU +113 · SAS -113

No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

10,000 simulated games, possession by possession

Typical score: Spurs 114, Rockets 113.
80% of simulations land between Rockets by 16 and Spurs by 18.

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Side by side

HOU		SAS
5-0	Record	3-2
+5.2 6	Net rating	+7.7 2
114.6 8	Offensive rating	115.2 5
109.4 6	Defensive rating	107.5 3
54.0% 18	Effective FG%	55.1% 8
53.0% 6	Opponent eFG%	51.4% 2
15.4 26	Turnovers per 100	13.3 6
34.3% 1	Offensive rebound %	26.4% 10
36.2% 11	3-point %	35.8% 14
100.0 27	Pace	102.5 15

Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).

Last 5 meetings

Date	Season	Score	Winner
2026-10-23	2026-27	HOU 114 @ SAS 110	HOU
2026-03-08	2025-26	HOU 120 @ SAS 145	SAS
2026-01-28	2025-26	SAS 111 @ HOU 99	SAS
2026-01-20	2025-26	SAS 106 @ HOU 111	HOU
2025-11-07	2025-26	HOU 110 @ SAS 121	SAS

No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.

Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works

Player matchups

HOU

Kevin Durant F

25.7 pts, 5.5 reb, 4.7 ast in 36.4 min, 52% FG

vs a defense ranked 3 of 30 (opponent eFG% 51.4%)

HOU

Alperen Sengun C

20.6 pts, 9 reb, 6.1 ast in 33.8 min, 52% FG

vs a defense ranked 3 of 30 (opponent eFG% 51.4%)

HOU

Amen Thompson G

18.3 pts, 7.7 reb, 5.3 ast in 37.6 min, 53% FG

vs a defense ranked 3 of 30 (opponent eFG% 51.4%)

SAS

Victor Wembanyama F

24.6 pts, 11.3 reb, 3 ast in 30.5 min, 50% FG

vs a defense ranked 6 of 30 (opponent eFG% 53.0%)

SAS

De'Aaron Fox G

17.7 pts, 3.8 reb, 6.2 ast in 31.6 min, 47% FG

vs a defense ranked 6 of 30 (opponent eFG% 53.0%)

SAS

Stephon Castle G

17 pts, 5.3 reb, 7 ast in 30.8 min, 46% FG

vs a defense ranked 6 of 30 (opponent eFG% 53.0%)

Per-game averages, 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons. Ordered by Game Score.

Last time they met

The Rockets beat the Spurs 114-110 on the road (2026-10-23). The difference: they made 10 more free throws (28 to 18). Alperen Sengun led the Rockets with 29 points.