HOU
WAS
Houston Rockets @ Washington Wizards
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
HOUHouston Rockets
76% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 76% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why Rockets can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 7.2 points to the Rockets in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Rockets 6th (+5.2), Wizards 30th (-10.9).
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Rockets +14.2, Wizards -2.2.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 4.1 points to the Rockets in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Rockets win 7,650 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Rockets may not
- Home court: the Wizards play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Upset odds: the Wizards win 2,350 of 10,000 simulations (24%). A 76% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Rockets lose by 7 or more.
- Weak spot: the Rockets rank 26th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (15.4).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | HOU -9.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 229.4 |
| Win chance | HOU n/a · WAS n/a | HOU 76% · WAS 24% |
| Fair moneyline | HOU -325 · WAS +325 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Wizards 110, Rockets 120.
- 80% of simulations land between Rockets by 26 and Wizards by 7.
Side by side
| HOU | WAS | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-0 | Record | 2-3 |
| +5.2 6 | Net rating | -10.9 30 |
| 114.6 8 | Offensive rating | 108.2 29 |
| 109.4 6 | Defensive rating | 119.2 30 |
| 54.0% 18 | Effective FG% | 53.5% 21 |
| 53.0% 6 | Opponent eFG% | 55.9% 27 |
| 15.4 26 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.0 23 |
| 34.3% 1 | Offensive rebound % | 23.9% 22 |
| 36.2% 11 | 3-point % | 35.5% 18 |
| 100.0 27 | Pace | 104.3 5 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-02 | 2025-26 | HOU 123 @ WAS 118 | HOU |
| 2025-11-12 | 2025-26 | WAS 112 @ HOU 135 | HOU |
| 2025-01-07 | 2024-25 | HOU 135 @ WAS 112 | HOU |
| 2024-11-11 | 2024-25 | WAS 92 @ HOU 107 | HOU |
| 2024-03-19 | 2023-24 | HOU 137 @ WAS 114 | HOU |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works