IND
ATL
Indiana Pacers @ Atlanta Hawks
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
ATLAtlanta Hawks
69% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 69% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Hawks can win
- Simulation: the Hawks win 6,900 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Hawks 14th (+1.2), Pacers 26th (-7.2).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.7 points to the Hawks in our ratings.
- The Hawks' shooting (55.0% eFG%, 11th in the NBA) meets a Pacers defense that ranks 22nd.
- Home court: the Hawks play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Disadvantages Why Hawks may not
- Upset odds: the Pacers win 3,100 of 10,000 simulations (31%). A 69% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Hawks lose by 10 or more.
- Weak spot: the Hawks rank 27th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.18).
- Weak spot: the Hawks rank 20th of 30 in offensive rebounding (share of misses) (24.3%).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | ATL -6.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 234.3 |
| Win chance | IND n/a · ATL n/a | IND 31% · ATL 69% |
| Fair moneyline | IND +223 · ATL -223 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Hawks 120, Pacers 114.
- 80% of simulations land between Pacers by 10 and Hawks by 23.
Side by side
| IND | ATL | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 3-3 |
| -7.2 26 | Net rating | +1.2 14 |
| 108.4 27 | Offensive rating | 112.5 14 |
| 115.6 24 | Defensive rating | 111.3 11 |
| 53.3% 22 | Effective FG% | 55.0% 11 |
| 55.4% 22 | Opponent eFG% | 54.6% 19 |
| 14.0 12 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.6 7 |
| 21.8% 29 | Offensive rebound % | 24.3% 20 |
| 35.3% 20 | 3-point % | 36.7% 7 |
| 103.9 9 | Pace | 104.3 6 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | 2025-26 | ATL 124 @ IND 129 | IND |
| 2026-01-26 | 2025-26 | IND 116 @ ATL 132 | ATL |
| 2025-10-31 | 2025-26 | ATL 128 @ IND 108 | ATL |
| 2025-03-08 | 2024-25 | IND 118 @ ATL 120 | ATL |
| 2025-03-06 | 2024-25 | IND 118 @ ATL 124 | ATL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works