IND
BKN
Indiana Pacers @ Brooklyn Nets
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
INDIndiana Pacers
54% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Pacers can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Pacers +0.2, Nets -9.8.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.0 points to the Pacers in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Pacers win 5,430 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Pacers 12th (14.0), Nets 29th (15.8).
- The Pacers' shooting (53.3% eFG%, 22nd in the NBA) meets a Nets defense that ranks 28th.
Disadvantages Why Pacers may not
- Upset odds: the Nets win 4,570 of 10,000 simulations (46%). A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Home court: the Nets play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Pacers lose by 15 or more.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Nets 12th (14.6), Pacers 23rd (13.1).
- Weak spot: the Pacers rank 29th of 30 in offensive rebounding (share of misses) (21.8%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | IND -1.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 232.3 |
| Win chance | IND n/a · BKN n/a | IND 54% · BKN 46% |
| Fair moneyline | IND -119 · BKN +119 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Nets 116, Pacers 117.
- 80% of simulations land between Pacers by 18 and Nets by 15.
Side by side
| IND | BKN | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 0-4 |
| -7.2 26 | Net rating | -9.9 28 |
| 108.4 27 | Offensive rating | 105.9 30 |
| 115.6 24 | Defensive rating | 115.9 26 |
| 53.3% 22 | Effective FG% | 52.0% 30 |
| 55.4% 22 | Opponent eFG% | 57.2% 28 |
| 14.0 12 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.8 29 |
| 21.8% 29 | Offensive rebound % | 23.8% 23 |
| 35.3% 20 | 3-point % | 34.2% 27 |
| 103.9 9 | Pace | 100.4 24 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | 2026-27 | IND 136 @ BKN 109 | IND |
| 2026-04-09 | 2025-26 | IND 123 @ BKN 94 | IND |
| 2026-02-11 | 2025-26 | IND 115 @ BKN 110 | IND |
| 2025-11-05 | 2025-26 | BKN 112 @ IND 103 | BKN |
| 2025-03-22 | 2024-25 | BKN 103 @ IND 108 | IND |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works