IND
BOS
Indiana Pacers @ Boston Celtics
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
BOSBoston Celtics
74% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 74% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Celtics can win
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Celtics 4th (+7.5), Pacers 26th (-7.2).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.3 points to the Celtics in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Celtics win 7,400 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The Celtics' offense (116.6 points per 100 possessions, 2nd in the NBA) meets a Pacers defense that ranks 24th.
- Point differential per game: Celtics 4th (+7.3), Pacers 26th (-7.5).
Disadvantages Why Celtics may not
- Upset odds: the Pacers win 2,600 of 10,000 simulations (26%). A 74% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Celtics lose by 8 or more.
- Weak spot: the Celtics rank 29th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.17).
- Weak spot: the Celtics rank 27th of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (12.8).
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Pacers 23rd (0.20), Celtics 29th (0.17).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BOS -8.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 228.5 |
| Win chance | IND n/a · BOS n/a | IND 26% · BOS 74% |
| Fair moneyline | IND +285 · BOS -285 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Celtics 118, Pacers 110.
- 80% of simulations land between Pacers by 8 and Celtics by 25.
Side by side
| IND | BOS | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 3-1 |
| -7.2 26 | Net rating | +7.5 4 |
| 108.4 27 | Offensive rating | 116.6 2 |
| 115.6 24 | Defensive rating | 109.1 5 |
| 53.3% 22 | Effective FG% | 55.1% 10 |
| 55.4% 22 | Opponent eFG% | 52.2% 4 |
| 14.0 12 | Turnovers per 100 | 12.7 2 |
| 21.8% 29 | Offensive rebound % | 29.0% 6 |
| 35.3% 20 | 3-point % | 36.5% 8 |
| 103.9 9 | Pace | 98.1 30 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-21 | 2025-26 | IND 104 @ BOS 119 | BOS |
| 2026-01-12 | 2025-26 | BOS 96 @ IND 98 | IND |
| 2025-12-26 | 2025-26 | BOS 140 @ IND 122 | BOS |
| 2025-12-22 | 2025-26 | IND 95 @ BOS 103 | BOS |
| 2024-12-29 | 2024-25 | IND 123 @ BOS 114 | IND |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works