IND
CHA
Indiana Pacers @ Charlotte Hornets
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
CHACharlotte Hornets
61% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 61% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Hornets can win
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Hornets 8th (+3.7), Pacers 26th (-7.2).
- The Hornets' offense (114.6 points per 100 possessions, 7th in the NBA) meets a Pacers defense that ranks 24th.
- Simulation: the Hornets win 6,070 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Hornets 8th (+3.7), Pacers 26th (-7.5).
- Home court: the Hornets play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Disadvantages Why Hornets may not
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Pacers +0.2, Hornets -7.2.
- Upset odds: the Pacers win 3,930 of 10,000 simulations (39%). A 61% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Pacers 12th (14.0), Hornets 28th (15.6).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Hornets lose by 13 or more.
- Weak spot: the Hornets rank 28th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (15.6).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CHA -4 |
| Total points | n/a | 224.5 |
| Win chance | IND n/a · CHA n/a | IND 39% · CHA 61% |
| Fair moneyline | IND +154 · CHA -154 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Hornets 114, Pacers 111.
- 80% of simulations land between Pacers by 13 and Hornets by 21.
Side by side
| IND | CHA | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 3-2 |
| -7.2 26 | Net rating | +3.7 8 |
| 108.4 27 | Offensive rating | 114.6 7 |
| 115.6 24 | Defensive rating | 110.9 10 |
| 53.3% 22 | Effective FG% | 54.7% 13 |
| 55.4% 22 | Opponent eFG% | 54.0% 10 |
| 14.0 12 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.6 28 |
| 21.8% 29 | Offensive rebound % | 30.5% 4 |
| 35.3% 20 | 3-point % | 37.2% 4 |
| 103.9 9 | Pace | 100.3 25 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-03 | 2025-26 | IND 108 @ CHA 129 | CHA |
| 2026-02-26 | 2025-26 | CHA 133 @ IND 109 | CHA |
| 2026-01-08 | 2025-26 | IND 114 @ CHA 112 | IND |
| 2025-11-19 | 2025-26 | CHA 118 @ IND 127 | IND |
| 2025-04-02 | 2024-25 | CHA 105 @ IND 119 | IND |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works